04/20/2015

Blocking Pattern to Bring Prolonged Cool Spell

Following a spectacular Thunder over Louisville which featured temps in the low 80's, it has been all downhill from there.  

The arrival of rain and storms cooled temps into the 70's yesterday and despite the arrival of some late day sun today, temps barely pushed into the low 60's.   

So what's the culprit for the cold? 

A large trough of low pressure has been building into the East-Central US over the last few days and is currently centered over the Western Great Lakes.  

Unfortunately, thanks to a blocking pattern known as a "high over low block" that has been developing over the Western US, the "eastern trough" looks to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

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So what does this mean?  

This means that that unseasonably cold conditions will continue to pour into the area this week.  

In fact, frost will be a possibility by the end of the week and this weekend could be just downright nasty.  

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The latest run (18z) of the GFS is now forecasting Saturday midday temps to run between 20 and 25 degrees below normal for this time of the year.  That would put us in the 40's for possibly low 50's and would be accompanied by a cold rain.  Not idea conditions for Derby Festival Events.  

How long could the cold spell last? 

According to the Climate Prediction Center, the next 6 to 10 days will likely feature below normal temps over the Eastern US.

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Long-range data doesn't offer much help either with the CFS climate model indicating that the chilly weather could very well run through the first week of May as well.  

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For the latest on just how cold it could get this week, be sure to join Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Weather Blog: This Should Help You Plan

From Jude Redfield...

    The average high of 70 isn't going to be reached anytime soon. A cool change is blowing in on a strong westerly wind.

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While a few showers will be on the radar from time to time, don't expect a complete throw away day. Rain won't hit everyone, but what will impact the entire region are strong winds that could gust over 35mph.

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The overall pattern for the rest of the week is dominated by northwesterly flow. This keeps temps below average. A few nights will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. At this point I don't see a killing frost for any of us thank goodness.

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The rain has helped lower the pollen count just a bit. Areas that don't get the spotty showers/storms the next few days will see the pollen count climb once again.

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We don't have ideal conditions to do yard work every day, but there should still be ample dry time to get things done. We just have to pick and choose.

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04/19/2015

Wet Weather Continues to Spin our Way.

Just what we didn't need, more soaking rains across the area.

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Officially, we picked up better than 3/4" at the Louisville International Airport giving us a whopping 10.42" for the month of April (3rd most on record) and an incredible foot and a half since March 1!

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Although the steady rains have come to an end for now, the arrival of a slow moving low pressure system and accompanied cold front will bring us more showers over the next 24 hours.

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Le'ts time it out with AdvanceTrak...

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Fortunately, the rain looks to be more scattered in nature and won't be as heavy tomorrow.

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However, any rain at this point is too much and we will see more rain chances this week.  

For the latest on that, be sure to catch Jude first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook...

Sunday is turning out to be pretty soggy as rain continues to fall across much of the area. The good news is that it's not coming down heavy enough to create any flash flooding issues. Steady rain will taper off to scattered showers and storms as we get deeper into the afternoon. It also turns breezy and warm as temperatures quickly jump from the 60's and into the low 70's...

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If a storm happens to approach severe limits, it would occur during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail and high winds would be the primary threats, but I don't think you should be too worried. The rain this morning will minimize the amount of instability that we generate with daytime heating. Just be on guard for a couple stronger storms roaming Kentucky between 5 - 9 PM...

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It stays unsettled overnight and through Monday with hit or miss showers and storms. Keep the rain gear handy. Then we can finally dry things and bring back the sunshine for Tuesday. Jeremy Kappell will tracking any storms that do materialize later on. Make sure you check in with him for the very latest.

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-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

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04/18/2015

Heavy Rain & Storms Expected Sunday

After a spectacular Thunder Saturday, a slow moving, but vigorous upper level storm system will bring us some big changes over the next 24 hours.

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This large upper storm system will combine with moisture returning from the Gulf to give much of the Southeastern US a chance of severe weather on Sunday.

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Locally, the Slight Risk extends to just south of the Parkways where the primary risks will be for small hail and gusty winds.  

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Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

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We'll have to watch any storms that get going late afternoon tomorrow.  If we end up with enough heating, some of those could go severe. 

Rick will have a full update on what to expect first thing in on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Timing Out Weekend Rain Chances...

The weather looks great for those of you attending Thunder Over Louisville! Sunshine will duck behind clouds every so often as temperatures warm near 80. Showers and storms hold off until after midnight so both the air show and fireworks should be rain-free...

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We don't get so lucky for the second half of the weekend. Rain develops overnight and it will be stormy at times on Sunday. Future radar paints on some showers, and perhaps a storm around 3 AM and keeps scattered showers around by sunrise...

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Rain becomes widespread late morning before easing up a bit through the early afternoon. You might be able to get a few hours of dry time, but showers will still be roaming parts of Kentuckiana...

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More showers and storms will swing through during the evening and again Sunday night. While the severe threat is very low, a few of these storms could be on the stronger side with gusty winds and small hail. The rain that falls early in the day will prevent things from getting out of hand later on... 

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Most of the area will end up with 1-2" of rain before this system pulls away Monday afternoon. This will prolong many of the flooding issues along rivers, streams, and creeks. We just over the halfway point for the month of April and it's already the 3rd wettest on record!

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Jeremy Kappell will be in tonight with a full update. Happy Thunder!

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 


 

04/17/2015

Climate Prediction Center Suggests Chilly Changes Ahead...

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a 60% probability of below average temperatures heading into next weekend. Take a look at the 6 - 10 day temperature outlook where blue = below, and red = above average temperatures...

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With so many KDF outdoor events going on next weekend, I wanted to give you a heads up. If you have plans for the Great Balloon Race or annual marathon/mini, you may need to dress for chilly temperatures. Ths GSF computer model has not shown a good deal of consistency, so let's look at the raw numbers from the EURO...

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The latest run shows low's in the 30's and highs only in the 50's! Keep in mind that we are looking at temperatures over a week out and these numbers may be a bit too low. However, I think this cooler pattern is very likely and it might hold on for a while. The CPC expects our temperatures to stay below average 8 - 14 days out as well. This takes us through the end of April and only days away from Derby!   

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We will keep a close eye on these trends and be sure to keep you updated. Join Marc Weinberg tonight on WDRB for the latest!

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

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Weather Whiplash This Weekend

From Jude Redfield...

    We have a really nice day of weather this weekend and one really wet and stormy day. Thankfully hundreds of thousands of people get the sunshine and quiet weather for Thunder Over Louisville. It appears any rain/storms hold off until after midnight on Saturday. If you have plans to be outside on Sunday it isn't looking promising right now. Our weather whiplash brings rising rain/storm chances to 90% on Sunday. A few storms could approach severe limits as the low pressure and cold front arrive Sunday into Monday.

    My words of wisdom for outdoor plans tomorrow...HAVE SUNSCREEN READ TO GO! Our UV index comes in around 8 which is very high. Bad sunburns, we see it all the time when Thunder Over Louisville ends up sunny so don't get caught without the sun block :)  Temps tomorrow jump to near 80 in the afternoon.

    The other thing to be aware of tomorrow is the raging Ohio River. It stays near flood stage tomorrow meaning boating will be extremely dangerous. 

Have a safe and fun weekend and enjoy the early preview of summertime in Kentuckiana -Jude-

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04/16/2015

Thunder Over Louisville Forecast: Discussing Rain Chances And River Flooding...

The forecast for Thunder Over Louisville has been a tough call all week. We can finally iron out all of the details and give you some specifics. Plans for the air show look amazing with plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming up near 80 by 3 pm. Don't forget to pack the sunscreen! Ceiling heights will be unlimited early on, then dropping to 18k ft by the evening as clouds gradually roll in.

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The fireworks begin at 9:30 pm and with the clouds overhead, temperatures should hold in the low 70's. Light winds from the east will blow the smoke down the river. Aside from a spotty shower, it should stay mainly dry for the fireworks as well. The opportunity for showers and storms begins to rise after midnight so if you have a long ride home, you might have to dodge a bit of rain. The bottom line here is that the weather looks outstanding! 

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Adjustments have also been made to the potential for river flooding along the Ohio. Space will still be limited along the immediate waterfront, but the river should crest below flood stage. People are encouraged to bring a tarps as the ground is still going to be saturated. Take a look at the latest levels expected at the McAlpine Upper and Lower...

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 Join Marc Weinberg for more details on WDRB!

 

-Rick DeLuca

 

Rick

 

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Weather Blog: Radar Update

From Jude Redfield (10:15am)

    Areas of rain with a couple lightning strikes are found on the radar right now. This moves to the NE around 30mph. After this lifts away expect a drying out period for a while. New spotty showers/storms should then develop later in the day. -Jude Redfield-

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