02/08/2016

Weather Blog: Snow Discussion

From Jude Redfield...

    Once again we have a winter weather advisory that rolls through Tuesday evening. As stated over and over on WDRB In The Morning earlier today don't get caught up in the counties that are or are not in the advisory. Personally I strongly feel that all locations in Kentuckiana will deal with some problems at times as these snow bursts blow through. This advisory map was put together by the National Weather Service for locations they feel has the best chance at the most widespread snow concerns.

    As the air and pavement temp drops late today and tonight salt trucks will be called upon to keep area roads safe. These snow showers are winter's version of pop up summer showers and storms. Any spot that deals with multiple snow bursts over the next 36 hours has the best chance of picking up 1"-2"    With quite a bit of instability in play this afternoon and early this evening I can't rule out a couple claps of thunder and lightning strikes in the most extreme snow bursts.  Please use caution if you encounter these snow showers as visibility will quickly drop to near zero with roads becoming covered in the matter of minutes. I would imagine our area will deal with quite a few school delays/closings Tuesday morning -Jude Redfield-

RadarHelp1

Snow Reports

Winter Weather Advisory Issued

From Jude Redfield...

    The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory that begins late this afternoon and runs through Tuesday evening. Scattered snow showers will develop today and linger through Tuesday night. These brief, intense snow bursts will cause quick coverings of snow and reduce visibility. As temps fall late today and tonight expect slick roads where these snow showers occur. It is impossible to predict exact amounts of snow with these since they are similar to pop up showers and storms during the summer. In fact I can't rule out spotty thunder and lightning late this afternoon with a few of the most intense snow showers.  Locations that have multiple snow bursts over the next 36 hours could end up with 1" - 2"+ accumulation.  Please use caution if traveling through these snow bursts 

I will have in depth analysis and future radar images on WDRB IN THE MORNING through 9am -Jude Redfield-

RadarHelp1

RadarHelp

02/07/2016

Snow will mark the beginning of a LONG DURATION Cold Spell!

Hopefully you enjoyed the sunshine and 50 degree weather this weekend, because it will be quite a while before we see conditions this nice again. 

We are tracking a strong upper level low pressure system developing across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. 

Radar01

A pair of cold fronts in association with this upper storm will sweep through the area  bringing a BIG drop in temps and the chance for both rain and snow over the next 24 hours.

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT shows rain developing initially tonight with temps falling through the 40's.

Advancetrak

Rain and snow showers will be possible out the door tomorrow.  With warm ground temps and air temps remaining near or above freezing, roads should be in fine shape.

Advancetrak2

Rain transitions into mainly just snow showers during by late morning into the afternoon.

Advancetrak3

Some heavier bursts of snow shower activity will be a possibility late afternoon and into the evening.

Advancetrak4

Roads should remain in fine shape through early evening as temps begin to slide below freezing.

Advancetrak5

Let's talk about the cold!

While snow showers and snow squalls will steal the headline over the next few days and while light accumulations are expected through the day on Wednesday, the real story will be the duration of the cold that is coming our way.  

A current scan of temps over Eastern/Northern Canada reveals what we are dealing with.  There is an enormous area of ARCTIC AIR locked up just to our north on the order of 20 to 40 degrees below zero!  (These are not wind chill readings!) 

Jet stream

While we will manage to avoid the bulk of this cold, thanks to the current jet stream alignment,  running northwest to southeast out of Canada and into the Eastern US, we will feel the fringe effects of it for quite some time.  

So how long will this cold spell last?  

Just take a look at these afternoon "highs" projected by the latest run (18z) GFS...

At2

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At4

At5

At6

At7

At8

At9

Yep, you saw it correctly.  If the data is correct, then once we go below freezing tomorrow evening, we may not get above freezing again for MORE THAN A WEEK!!!  

Not to mention that morning lows could drop well down into the single digits or even near zero for parts of the area this week.  OUCH!!  

Moral of the story... be prepared for the cold and a lot of it!  

Jude will have a full update on our snow potential and just how cold it will get on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Winter Is About To Make A Comeback!

We get to enjoy one last day with temperatures in the 50's before an arctic front sends us back into the freezer. Clouds increase today and rain showers break out well after sunset. As colder air rushes in tomorrow, rain showers gradually transition over to snow showers. Just to be clear, this isn't a winter storm that will provide us with constant snow. Snow showers will be on and off in nature Monday through Wednesday...

Blog 3

The morning commute won't be much of an issue with ground temperatures above the freezing mark. I'd be more cautious during the afternoon as localized snow squalls develop. These have the ability to produce gusty winds, and brief, intense bursts of snow. If you happen to get caught in one, you can bet on dealing with slick roads and reduced visibilities. According to the latest run of the NAM, GFS, and EURO, most locations will end up with 1-2", give or take a little, by 5 PM Wednesday. Remember, this is not going to fall all at once. It will gradually add up as we head through the next few days...    

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-Rick DeLuca

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02/06/2016

Arctic Blast Looming. Snow Likely to Start Workweek!

While our weather pattern remains quiet and rather mild now, changes are already starting to occur in the jet stream winds aloft that will bring our nice weekend to a sudden halt tomorrow night.  

Currently, we are tracking an area of low pressure developing in the upper levels over Southern Canada and into the Northern Tier of the US.

Rad2

This low will dive to the southeast while strengthening pulling down a chunk of arctic air in the process. 

Rad3

This arctic blast will send temps plummeting to start out the workweek and will come with both rain and snow.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak... 

AT starts us off with frosty conditions out the door, but sunshine helps to warm us quickly through the morning hours.

At1

A few high clouds begin to arrive as we head into the afternoon with temps warming to near 50 by  lunch.

At2

Clouds increase late afternoon with temps improving into the middle 50's for Louisville.

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With the arrival of the cold front, we see rain showers developing west of 65 by mid evening.

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Rain expands to the east throughout the evening and overnight.  Temps drop.

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By morning, rain changes over the snow showers with temps falling through the 30's.

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Temps remain in the 30's with a blustery northwest wind and additional snow showers throughout the day on Monday.

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It get's even colder on Tuesday with more snow showers and snow squalls expected.  

How much are we talking about? 

The latest data continues to support generally one to two inches across our area by late on Tuesday. 

Snowfall projection nam

Keep in mind that not all of this will fall at once so that should limit impacts.  However, with temps diving into the teens and very low 20's, some problems will be possible on area roads come Tuesday morning. 

The cold keeps coming at us this week and we do have more snow chances as well.  

Rick will have a full update on the snow potential and just how cold it will get on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Watch An Entire Year Of Weather Across The Globe In Less Than 9 Minutes!

This visualization, comprised of imagery from the geostationary satellites of EUMETSAT, NOAA and the JMA, shows an entire year of weather across the globe during 2015 in less than 9 minutes! There are several things I want to point out. First, notice the snow gradually melting as winter turns into spring. You can also clearly see the counterclockwise rotation of storms in the Northern Hemisphere, and the clockwise spin down in the Southern Hemisphere. Around the 6:30 mark, keep an eye on the Atlantic Basin to watch the evolution of Hurricane Joaquin... 

 

Video Courtesy: EUMETSAT

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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02/05/2016

Snow Squalls Likely Next Week. Let's Talk Accumulation Potential!

We are about to see a powerful front move into our area and it will absolutely have impacts on our area. This front will allow cold air to surge from early next week through the middle part of the week. When cold air surges, we normally see some type of precipitation occur. In this blog, I want to discuss the change from rain to snow and how much could accumulate.

 

Transition From Rain To Snow

 

The first part of this story will begin late in the day on Sunday as our arctic cold front approaches the area. This should generate showers late in the day (after sunset) on Sunday but it does appear the ground temperatures will be too warm to support anything other than rain on the actual cold front. Notice AdvanceTrak bringing the initial batch through as rain. As you look, you will see the timestamp on the top right part of each image.

 

AdvanceTrak 1

 

AdvanceTrak 2

 

AdvanceTrak 3

 

With the cold air filtering in on Monday, we should see a setup that is solid to support high intensity snow squalls. Remember, these are the winter version of the summer t-storm so you can get high intensity bursts for periods of time. The data shows the cold surge will be best on Monday and Tuesday meaning the snow squall chance is best on these two days.

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Monday

Notice the solid cold surge occurring on Monday which is favorable for snow squalls.

 

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GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Tuesday

Notice the same cold surge occurring on Tuesday supporting more snow showers and snow squalls.

 

Gfs_850_2

 

GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Wednesday

By Wednesday, the cold surge is subsiding and the snow showers should as well.

 

Gfs_850_3

 

 

How Much Snow Could Fall?

 

The computer models have been quite consistent with this storm system showing light accumulations are possible. When I say light, I mean an inch or two is totally possible. I will stop the computer models at Monday 5 pm, Tuesday 5 pm, and Wednesday 5 pm so you can get an idea of how much total has fallen in each timeframe. These totals are cumulative, so NOT in addition. Notice the name of each computer model and timestamp is on the top right part of each image.

 

GFS Computer Model

Notice the GFS shows generally 1" - 2" will fall on Monday and Tuesday with an isolated total to near 3".

 

GFS

 

GFS 2

 

GFS 3

 

EURO Computer Model

Notice the EURO computer model also shows generally 1" - 2" will fall on Monday and Tuesday. There is no question that this could lead to some slick roadways.

 

EURO

 

EURO 2

 

EURO 3

 

 

My Thoughts On Snow Totals For Next Week

 

The data continues to show a very good setup for high intensity snow squalls on Monday and Tuesday of next week. These snow squalls can produce lower visibility at times and very much have the ability to produce road coverings. The data suggest once we hit about 7 am on Monday, the atmosphere should be cold enough to support only frozen precipitation and the change would be sharp. This takes ice off the table in this kind of a situation. AdvanceTrak does show the snow squalls beginning on Monday.

 

AdvanceTrak 4

 

This seems like a solid candidate for a light accumulation over a couple day period. I think a 1" total for many of us is likely and some could get closer to 2", especially in our NE counties. The will fall over 2 days so it will mitigate the impact some, but there will still likely be slick roads by Tuesday in parts of the area.

 

 

 

Remember it is Winter storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

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02/04/2016

A Tornado Hits A Tennessee High School Tuesday & The Surveillance Video Was Just Released. Wow.

Tuesday there were a number of tornadoes that touched down to our south including an EF-1 tornado that hit Crockett County High School in Tennessee. The surveillance video as the tornado hit was just released showing the tornado tearing apart some buildings near the school and power lines exploding. Take a look at the multiple angles from the school as the tornado hit.

 

 

 

 The tornado was rated as an EF-1 with a maximum width of around 75 yards. Not a monster tornado, but as you can see every tornado is serious.

 

 

 

Remember it is Winter storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

http://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX

 

02/03/2016

Data Supports Arctic Invasion Next Week!

Following four straight days with temps up into the 60's, we'll be getting back to reality over the next few days with temps back to seasonably cold levels tomorrow and Friday.

Temps moderate this weekend and then it looks like we'll have some SERIOUS cold to deal with as we head into next week.

Arctic Air Building! 

Current air temperatures across Central and Northern Canada are running some 10 to 20 to near 30 degrees below zero!

At temps

Eventually, a chunk of this arctic air mass will invade the Eastern US.  

The latest data continues to support the idea of a deep trough of low pressure developing over the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning.  

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Ahead of this upper feature, the cold will begin to surge into our area early next week.

Timing out the Cold

Here's a look at surface temps via the 12z GFS...

Monday Evening

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Tuesday Morning

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Tuesday Evening

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Wednesday Morning

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You get the idea, temps really take a dive with widespread single digits possible by early Wednesday.  

Factoring in the wind! OUCH!!

These are actual air temps, it will feel colder when you factor in the wind with wind chill values currently forecasted to drop to more than 10 degrees below zero in some cases!

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The tip of the Proverbial Ice Berg?

While the cold early next week looks like a lock at this point, there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to what will happen after that. 

It is worth noting though what some of the data is saying.  Like this upper wind pattern for next Saturday (Feb 13th) which is clearly showing a displacement of the polar vortex.  

500mbna3

Should this occur, then we will likely be dealing with yet another arctic wave in our near future.  

What about snow?  

In addition to the cold, snow showers are likely with the arrival of the cold on Monday and Tuesday with light accumulations possible.  

Marc will have a full update on the snow potential and just how cold it will get on WDRB News tonight.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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02/02/2016

Recap of NWS Briefing Regarding Severe Weather Risk Tonight

The NWS decided not to do a conference call today because the greatest threat of severe weather appears to be the west today. For what it is worth, I think this was the right decision from the NWS. As we stand at 2:00 pm on Tuesday, notice the first tornado watch has been issued to our west.

 

Warnings

 

While there are storms ahead of the line now, the main show will be forming to the west over the next couple of hours. The storms are well ahead of the instability that fuels storms, so we do not expect these to be severe.

 

StormViewHD 1

 

StormViewHD 2

 

 

NWS Briefing Info

 

The NWS released their briefing slides recently, so I wanted to recap the information here.

 

 

NWS Conference Call 1

 

NWS Conference Call 2

 

 

 

Jude Redfield had a recap from around 1 pm and if you would like to catch up on our thoughts, please visit this blog... http://bit.ly/1JVJ1Jx

 

I will have my full update on storm potential on WDRB News at 4 pm, 6 pm, 6:30 pm, 10 pm, and 11 pm. See you soon.

 

 

 

Remember it is Winter storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

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