01/21/2017

Potent Storm System Delivers Severe Weather South... Rain Eventually Here.

A vigorous upper level storm system continues to impact much of the South with severe weather tonight.

Satrad

There's a MODERATE risk for severe weather across portions of Dixie and the Gulf Coast where more tornadoes are expected.  

Spc

Fortunately for us, the severe threat looks to remain well to our south into the day tomorrow.

However, the storm will bring us more gloom on Sunday with a good chance for showers too.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At1

At2

At3

AT is showing most of the shower activity to hold off until late in the day.  

Showers look to become widespread tomorrow evening and overnight.

At4

At5

At6

So what do I think?  

I think it is looking more and more like tomorrow WILL NOT be a washout.  Although you can't rule out the possibility of a shower in the morning, it looks like the better chance will hold off until the afternoon and evening hours.  In addition to the rain arriving later, it looks like overall rainfall amounts will be lighter too with most areas under a quarter of an inch.  Higher amounts will be possible along and south of the Parkways. 

Katie will have a fresh update first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Cool Video: "Colorful Landing" on Pluto

What would it be like to actually land on Pluto? This movie was made from more than 100 images taken by NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft over six weeks of approach and close flyby in the summer of 2015. The video offers a trip down onto the surface of Pluto -- starting with a distant view of Pluto and its largest moon, Charon -- and leading up to an eventual ride in for a "landing" on the shoreline of Pluto's informally named Sputnik Planitia.

Video Courtesy: NASA.gov Video

To create a movie that makes viewers feel as if they’re diving into Pluto, mission scientists had to interpolate some of the panchromatic (black and white) frames based on what they know Pluto looks like to make it as smooth and seamless as possible. Low-resolution color from the Ralph color camera aboard New Horizons was then draped over the frames to give the best available, actual color simulation of what it would look like to descend from high altitude to Pluto’s surface.

After a 9.5-year voyage covering more than three billion miles, New Horizons flew through the Pluto system on July 14, 2015, coming within 7,800 miles (12,500 kilometers) of Pluto. Carrying powerful telescopic cameras that could spot features smaller than a football field, New Horizons sent back hundreds of images of Pluto and its moons that show how dynamic and fascinating their surfaces are. 

The original black-and-white “landing” movie can be viewed here.

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01/20/2017

WHAT IS THAT? Ash Cloud Tells A Story Of A Volcano Rising...

When NASA's Terra satellite passed over Alaska's erupting Bogoslof Volcano the MODIS instrument aboard captured an image of a large ash plume surrounded by clouds making it appear to be wrapped in white.

Bogoslof.a2017018.2235.250m

Image Source: NASA

The Bogoslof Volcano is located on Bogoslof Island at 53°55'38" north latitude and 168°2'4" west longitude, along the southern edge of the Bering Sea. It is about 35 miles northwest of Unalaska Island which is part of the Aleutian Island chain.

On January 18 at 5:35 p.m. EST (2235 UTC) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument flies aboard both NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of the volcanic ash plume which appeared dark brown. The plume stood out in the image because appeared in the middle of white clouds associated with the southern quadrant of a low pressure system. The low pressure center was north of the area.

The Alaska Volcano Observatory or AVO is a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys. AVO provides updates on eruption levels.

C2n1zgMW8AEERZ3

Image Source: NASA

There are four levels of eruption:  Green, Yellow, Orange and Red.

Green is a non-eruptive state. Yellow means the volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest. According to the AVO website, an Orange aviation code means that the volcano is exhibiting heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption, timeframe uncertain, or, the eruption is underway with no or minor volcanic-ash emissions. Red means and eruption is imminent or underway. On January 19, the status level for Bogoslof was red.

On January 18 at 6:25 p.m. AKST (local time)/10:25 p.m. EST (January 19 at 03:25 UTC) the Alaska Volcano Observatory Status Report noted that the eruption occurred at about 5:20 p.m. EST (22:20 UTC) and " Pilots reported the cloud reached a height greater than 31,000 feet and prevailing winds carried it northeast over the Bering Sea. This eruption also produced lightning strikes, and infrasound signals detected by sensors in Sand Point and Dillingham."

The AVO report noted that just after the eruption when NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead, the dark ash cloud was seen just northeast of Bogoslof. AVO said "This cloud was darker in color, and presumably more ash-rich, than others we have seen in the eruptive sequence, which began in mid-December 2016. This image also suggests the presence of very hot material (lava) at the surface immediately surrounding the vent – the first such observation during this eruption sequence."

For future updates, on the Bogoslof eruption, visit: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Bogoslof.php 

During an actual eruption, see National Weather Service forecasts of airborne ash hazard to aircraft (SIGMETS: http://aawu.arh.noaa.gov and Volcanic Ash Advisories: http://vaac.arh.noaa.gov) as well as forecasts of ash fall: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov.

Rob Gutro
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Most Dramatic, Tragic, and Extreme Inauguration Weather

 The weather for today's inauguration was gloomy with rain, but pretty warm with temperatures in the upper 40s. The radar right at noon, when President Trump was sworn-in as the 45th President of the United States, is below.

The normal high temperature for the day is 43 degrees with a low of 28 degrees. Right at noon the temperature is about 37 degrees with partly cloudy skies, 10 mph winds and a wind chill of 31 degrees. There is usually about a 33% chance for measurable precipitation and a 1 in 6 chance of precipitation during the ceremony. There is only a 1 in 10 chance of measurable snow during the day and a 1 in 20 chance it will happen during the ceremony. 

Washington radar

Tragic and Deadly Inauguration Weather:

However, the weather has been to blame for some extreme weather that had tragic and deadly results. In 1841, President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, cold and blustery day. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes and he rode a  horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. Pneumonia developed from a lingering cold he caught on that day. He died just one month later.

Then just 12 years later, in 1853, President Franklin Pierce was sworn into office on another cold and snowy day. He awoke to heavy snow in the morning which continued until about 11:30 am. Skies looked to be brightening by noon. Shortly after Pierce took his oath of office, as he began his inaugural address, snow started again. It came down heavier than ever dispersing much of the crowd and ruining plans for the parade. Abigail Fillmore, First Lady to the outgoing President Millard Fillmore, caught a cold as she sat on the cold, wet, exposed platform during the swearing-in ceremony. The cold developed into pneumonia and she died at the end of the month.

Some Other Extreme Weather for Inauguration Days:

Snow

Worst Weather Day-  In 1909, President William H. Taft's ceremony (pictured above in front of Presidential Reviewing stand.) was forced indoors due to a storm that dropped 10 inches of snow over the Capital city. The snow and winds began the day before. Strong winds toppled trees and telephone poles. Trains were stalled and city streets clogged. All activity was brought to a standstill. Sanitation workers shoveled sand and snow through  half the night. It took 6,000 men and 500 wagons to clear 58,000 tons of snow and slush from the parade route. See pictures. Despite the freezing temperatures, howling wind, snow, and sleet, a large crowd gathered in front of the Capitol to view the inauguration, but the weather forced the ceremony indoors. Just after the swearing-in, the snow tapered off.

Snow

President Taft and wife returning to White House after the ceremony.

Wash Out -  In 1937, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's second inauguration. It was the first time the inauguration was held on January 20th. Two hundred thousand visitors came to Washington for the inauguration, though several thousand never got farther than Union Station. It was a cold rainy day. Some sleet and freezing rain was reported in the morning. Between 11 am and 1 pm, 0.69 inches of rain fell. The ceremony began at 12:23 pm. The noon temperature was 33°F. At the president's insistence, he rode back to the White House in an open car with a half an inch of water on the floor. Later, he stood for an hour and a half in an exposed viewing stand watching the inaugural parade splash by in the deluge. Total rainfall for the day was a wet 1.77 inches and this amount remains as the record rainfall for January 20th.

Worst Traffic Jam - In 1961, on the eve of the inauguration, 8 inches of snow fell and caused the most crippling traffic jam (for its time). Hundreds of cars were marooned and thousands of cars were abandoned.  The president-elect Kennedy had to cancel dinner plans and, in a struggle to keep other commitments, is reported to have had only 4 hours of sleep. Former President Herbert Hoover was unable to fly into Washington National Airport due to the weather and he had to miss the swearing-in ceremony. By sunrise, the snow had ended and the skies were clearing, but the day remained bitter cold.  An army of men worked all night to clear Pennsylvania Avenue and despite the cold, a large crowd turned out for the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. At noon, the temperature was only 22°F and the wind was blowing from the northwest at 19 mph making it feel like the temperature was 7°F above zero.

Warmest Inaugurations:  (Official weather records began in 1871)

Warmest January 20th Traditional Date: 1981 - Ronald Reagan - 55°F under mostly cloudy skies.
Warmest March 4th Traditional Date:
        Official record: 1913 - Woodrow Wilson - 55°F under overcast skies in Washington, DC.
        Unofficial: 1793 - George Washington - estimated 61°F in Philadelphia, PA.
Warmest Non-traditional Dates: August 9, 1974 - Gerald Ford - 89°F with partly cloudy and hazy skies.

Coldest Inaugurations:

Coldest January Date (and overall):  1985 - President Ronald Reagan's second swearing-in ceremony on January 21 had to be held indoors and the parade was canceled. The outside temperature at noon was only 7°F. The morning low was 4° below zero and the daytime high was only 17°. Wind chill temperatures during the afternoon were in the -10 to -20°F range.
Coldest March Date:  1873 - Ulysses S. Grant's second swearing-in ceremony - The morning low temperature of 4°F was a record for the month of March. The day remains the coldest March day on record. During the day, bitterly cold winds gusted up to 40 mph. By noon, the temperature had risen to 16°F. Wind chill temperatures were -15° to -30°F.  Cadets and midshipmen had been standing on the mall for more than an hour and a half without overcoats. Several of them collapsed. When the president delivered his inaugural address, the wind made his words inaudible to even those on the platform with him. The inaugural ball was held in a temporary building without heat. It had to be halted at midnight so people, who had been dancing in their overcoats and heavy wraps, could go home and get warm.

Inaugural Weather Fact Sheet

  • 1817    =    First outdoor inauguration. President James Monroe was sworn into office.
  • 1873    =    Coldest March 4th inauguration. Noon temperature was only 16°F with a record low temperature for March of only 4°F. Sunshine was no help as the wind made it bitterly cold. President Ulysses S. Grant was sworn into office for his second term.
  • 1909    =    Most snow with 9.8 inches. Also very strong winds. President William H. Taft was sworn into office.
  • 1913    =    Warmest March 4th inauguration. Noon temperature was 55°F.
  • 1937    =    First inauguration held on January 20th.
  • 1937    =    Record rainfall. It was President Franklin D. Roosevelt's second inauguration. A total rainfall of 1.77 inches fell that cold day.  Between 11 am and 1 pm, 0.69 inches of rain fell with a noon temperature of 33°F.
  • 1961    =    Eight (8) inches of fresh snow laid on the ground for President John F. Kennedy's inauguration.
  • 1981    =    Warmest January inauguration. Noon temperature was 55°F. It was Ronald Reagan's first inauguration and would greatly contrast his second inauguration listed below.
  • 1985    =    Coldest January inauguration (Jan. 21). Noon temperature was only 7°F. The morning low temperature was -4°F and the afternoon high was only 17°F. Wind chill temperatures in the afternoon were in the -10 to -20°F range. It was Ronald Reagan's second inauguration ceremony.

Inauguration Day Weather:

Traditional January Inaugurations -Beginning with Most Recent

 

Obama to carter

Nixon to roosevelt

Traditional March Inaugurations -Beginning with 1933 and going back to 1871 (1871 = Beginning of official government weather records)

Roosevelt to grant

Rain

Benjamin Harrison's inauguration in 1889.


Rain

Herbert Hoover's inaugural parade down Pennsylvania Avenue.

Traditional March Inaugurations - Beginning with 1869 and going back to 1817 (beginning of outdoor ceremonies).  Note: weather records are unofficial during this period.

Grant to monroe

Traditional  Inaugurations- Indoors - Beginning with 1813 and going back to 1789  (Weather records are unofficial during this period)

Madison to washington

Inauguration Day Weather:

NON-Traditional Dates of Inaugurations

Non traditional dates

 

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01/19/2017

JANUARY THAW: Are We Done With Winter?

The January thaw continued today making it our 10th straight day above 32 degrees! We are going to come crazy close to either tying or breaking the old record of 16 days set back in 1880...

4

What's next? The Climate Prediction Center released their 8 - 14 day outlook that takes us through the rest of the month! A quick glance a the map suggests a 40% chance of below average temperatures for our area...

1

Instead of simply taking their word for it, let's investigate by looking at the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 2-m temperature anomaly maps. As we get closer to the 27th, signs begin to point at temperatures heading back down to reality. This would mean highs in the 40's...  

2

By the end of the month, the cold air begins to tighten it's grip on us. Notice the overwhelming signal of below average readings... 

3

Overall, it seems the CPC forecast of below average temperatures by the end of January should hold true. When it comes to temperatures, winter isn't over. Marc and I will be on WDRB tonight timing out more rain chances into the weekend. 

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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Widespread Rain Headed Our Way!

A system to our south is ushering a few scattered showers and they will become more numerous and more widespread with time today. Eventually there will be a 100% chance for showers. This means we are confident everyone will see rain this evening and tonight. This system will also bring another surge of warm area to Kentuckiana by tomorrow. 

1-19 surf map

We have a few light and scattered showers around right now, but the main batch of widespread showers will be arriving late this afternoon and evening from our SW and spread out to the NE. 

1-19 AT 4 PM

At times there could be moderate to heavy rain and we can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm. The evening commute could be a bit hectic from the rain moving into the metro area at that time. 

1-19 AT 6 PM

The entire area will be covered with green on our radar by 9-10 pm and we will have widespread rain for the rest of the night. If you have evening plans, you DO NOT want to forget the umbrella. 

1-19 AT 930 PM

Showers will start to move out of the viewing area, but it will still be soggy north and along the river. 

1-19 AT 2 A M

By the morning rush, there will only a few scattered showers remaining. 

1-19 AT 630 A M

Besides early morning showers, the rest of tomorrow will just be cloudy with warm temperatures back in the mid 60s! 

1-19 AT FRIDAY 6 30 PM

We could see anywhere from an inch to an inch and a half in some locations. Raw model data from the GFS, EURO and NAM are below. The NAM shows the highest amounts, specifically to the south.

1-19 RAIN TOTALS GFS AND EURO

1-19 RAIN TOTALS NAM

There is going to be more active weather this weekend. For now, the severe weather threat looks to stay to the south. Hear Marc and Rick's thoughts about this system tonight on WDRB News! 

1-19 severe weather saturday

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Rain Train Is Coming...All Aboard

From Jude Redfield...

    Showers multiply this afternoon and end up hitting at a 100% chance tonight. Follow radar images below to see how everything evolves. A few isolated storms will occur(mainly in Kentucky)  Locally heavy rain is likely! Everyone gets a half inch to one inch.  Parts of Kentucky have the best chance of exceeding an inch.

Rainamounts

Shoes

Temps

TempPlunge

    Minor flooding is likely with this, but shouldn't get too out of control since the dry air arrives in the morning shutting everything off. Be alert for standing water later tonight if you have any travel plans.

ChristmasTree

    Friday evening offers nice weather with temps warming into the 50s and 60s during the day. This dry weather lingers into a large portion of Saturday. A few showers will pop up with daytime heating on Saturday, but should remain somewhat spotty.

    Enough sunshine should develop on Saturday to get our high temp to near 70 degrees.  All it will take is some bonus sunshine and we could be talking record high.  The target is 72. This is reachable with any bonus sun. 

Roster

01/18/2017

HD VID: Gym Roof Collapses During Game!

Dramatic footage showing the roof of a sports center collapsing during a floorball match in the Czech Republic on Saturday, January 14.

YouTube Video via The Weather Network

The collapse occurred after weeks of heavy snowfall in the region.  Fortunately, despite the large number of athletes and spectators, only minor injuries were reported.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Enchanting Video: Bubbles Freeze Before Your Eyes

Watch this mesmerizing real time footage of soap bubbles freezing right before your eyes. Photographer, Mike Shaw, from Saint Paul, Minnesota captured the amazing video. Although it looks like time lapse video, Shaw said it was shot in real time. He said he successfully filmed four bubbles out of 25 tries. Watch and be amazed!

Video Courtesy: CNN

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Rain Train Makes A Few More Visits

From Jude Redfield...

    Another half inch to one inch of rain is back in the forecast from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Most of the rain tapers off by Friday afternoon/night. Much better weather is likely for Friday evening plans to hit the town. More rain comes back late Saturday into Sunday and Monday. Some of this rain will be heavy at times as well.

ChristmasTree

     Don't expect temps to go below freezing until next Thursday or Friday. This could set the stage for the longest stretch of consecutive days above freezing we have ever seen in the month of January.

RadarHelp

     Wanting a return to winter? A cool down begins next Thursday with a step down to highs potentially in the 30s the following Friday and Saturday.  While this isn't exceptionally cold, it is closer to average.  It also appears a few flurries and snow showers will be possible around the 27th and 28th.  It certainly doesn't look that impressive in the snow category, but we do have the chance for flakes to fly.

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