11/25/2014

Wintry Mix Possible For Part Of The Area Late Wednesday... Let's Talk Accumulation Potential!

All the data has been showing a storm that will impact our region late in the day on Wednesday, but the locations that would be impacted has been somewhat fuzzy in the computer models. Today, they are zero'ing on what I would call a more accurate solution, so I want to discuss who could see the wintry mix and when in tonight's blog.

 

Wednesday Night Wintry Mix

 

The amounts of snow falling in each computer model is slightly different, but all show a storm that will move across southern KY Wednesday night. While there are subtle variations, they all do show this storm. The NAM shows the disturbance late Wednesday well.

 

Nam_500_vort 1

 

We have seen a trend to put the heaviest of the precipitation in southern KY late Wednesday, but that is also the area that will be the warmest. It has been clear from the start that this storm would fight low level warmth and that continues show up in all the data. I think this mitigates the chances that the storm on Wednesday night will be of significance. AdvanceTrak brings in the precipitation after about 7 pm and then lingers flurries through early on Thanksgiving. As you look, note the timestamp on the top right part of each image.

 

AdvanceTrak 1

 

AdvanceTrak 2

 

AdvanceTrak 3

 

AdvanceTrak 4

 

AdvanceTrak 5

 

AdvanceTrak 6

 

AdvanceTrak 7

 

AdvanceTrak 8

 

 

Computer Model Snowfall Output

 

I get asked a lot how I know which computer model snowfall output is legit. I will tell you that all snowfall output uses a simple algorithm. When a computer model says the precipitation type is snow, then it converts the amount of liquid that falls to snow at a 10:1 ratio. This means the EURO and GFS (which have poor low level resolution) will produce horrible snow predictions when there is any mixing involved. The data should thrown out the window anywhere there is mix involved. It amazes me over and over how I see people looking at the EURO and GFS as legitimate data when there is a mix involved because of this error that is always built into the data. With that in mind, we know mix is involved in this storm, so we would expect the NAM to be the most accurate.

 

GFS Snowfall Totals For Wednesday Night

 

GFS


 

EURO Snowfall Totals For Wednesday Night

 

EURO


 

NAM Snowfall Totals For Wednesday Night

 

NAM


 

AdvanceTrak Snowfall Totals For Wednesday Night

 

AdvanceTrak Totals



 

My Thoughts On The Storm Late Wednesday

 

Through the day today, we have seen a slight southward drift in the track of the low on all the computer models. There is still a slight variation in the data , but the general consensus is the low will move across southern KY late on Wednesday. The precipitation should start around 7 - 10 pm west of I-65 in our KY counties and spread across the rest of our KY counties by midnight. The data does suggest only light amounts will fall in southern IN but it would be late evening when it falls... if it does.

 

How much?

To be honest, I don't see this is as much of a snow maker. The low levels are well above freezing for the duration of the storm system on Wednesday. Obviously a warm surface would not hold much snow, but warm pavement even makes it more difficult. Notice the pavement temperatures are WELL above freezing right now and should continue to be through early Thursday when this system departs.

 

Pavetemp

 

The bottom line is that is not a setup that supports much snow accumulation. If we are to see any light accumulations, it will likely occur south of the river from around Brandenburg, KY to E-town, KY to around Springfield, KY. The data does suggest that moderate mix/snow bands could develop in this area. A grassy 1/2" to 1" accumulation is possible in these locations, but I do think it would melt pretty quickly with the temperatures in the mid 30s.

 

 

We will obviously be watching the storm closely, but as it stands nothing suggests any major problems on Wednesday night. A few slick spots are possible, but not much more than that.


 

 

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11/24/2014

Light Snow Likely Late Wednesday. Will we see Accumulations?

Following a warm, windy and wet weekend, the cold has returned and it could be accompanied by some wintry precipitation too. 

Today's model data continues to indicated that we will see an "Albert Clipper" dive out of Western Canada and enter the Northern Plains by late tomorrow. 

Nam_precip_mslp_conus2_11

From there, the storm is expected to drop towards the southeast producing a stripe of mixed precipitation across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley late Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_12

So what can we expect?

At this point, it appears that most of the day on Wednesday will be dry and cool.  However, clouds will be quick to increase across our area with the chance of precipitation developing by late afternoon or early evening.  

Initially, it could start as rain or sleet, but thermal profiles suggest that it should turn over to mainly light snow for areas along and north of the river quickly and eventually transition to all snow for the rest of the area as well overnight.  

Could it accumulate?

The quick answer to this is YES it could.  Key Word: COULD  So before you snow lovers get too excited, know that for those that do pick up snowfall it probably won't add up to much.  

Let's see how much the models say will fall...

NAM

GFS

EURO

What do I think? 

Obviously these are really small amounts were talking about here and factor into the equation that we will be above freezing for much of the day on Wednesday and most of this will end up melting on contact.  

However, with that said, a dusting or light coating (likely under an inch) may be possible on grassy or elevated surfaces (if things come together right for this system) and with colder air arriving Wednesday night, a few slick spots will be possible Thanksgiving morning.  

Moral of the story... This looks a minor event or possibly not an event at all. 

We'll be watching just in case.  Marc will have a full update tonight on WDRB News.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Weather Blog: Snow Impacts Busy Travel Day

From Jude Redfield...

    Cold air is coming along with a low pressure Wednesday afternoon and Night. This brings a pretty good chance at snow and some of it could accumulate.  This doesn't appear to be a situation like the winter storm that hit last week, but I do feel this needs to be monitored with parts of Kentuckiana standing a decent chance at some accumulations. This combined with it occurring during the busy travel timeframe on Wednesday evening adds extra awareness.  If you have any plans on traveling Wednesday night in the Ohio Valley keep up to date with this always changing weather situation.

Landmarks To Add

New Landmarks

Newsnow

11/23/2014

A Busy Monday! Wintry Weather for Holiday?

As I posted about earlier, A WIND ADVISORY has been issued for the viewing area.  

Watch

The Advisory goes into effect at 4 AM ET/3AM CT and remains in effect through 6 PM ET/5 PM CT on Monday.  

In addition to high winds that could gust to 45 mph, the chance of rain continues through morning tomorrow.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

Thanks to a gusty south wind, mild temperatures continue out the door tomorrow with the chance of a few showers.  Keep a firm grip on that steering wheel!

Advancetrak

The arrival of a strong cold front will bring us a better chance of showers by mid morning on Monday. The strongest winds will likely accompany the arrival of this front with gusts to 45 or even50 mph possible!  

Advancetrak2

The very strong winds turn around to the west by lunch time ushering in much colder conditions by midday. Winds remain very strong through the first part of the afternoon.

Advancetrak3

Temps look to remain in the 40's through the afternoon hours with rain chances coming to an end.  Winds look to relax as we head into the evening on Monday.

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal for the balance of the workweek.

What's this I hear about a chance of snow?

While the East Coast could be looking at a BIG storm for the big travel day on Wednesday, we too could see some interesting weather.  

The latest model data supports the idea of a clipper system diving into our area late afternoon and into the eveing on Wednesday with what would likely be a rain to light snow scenario in our area.  

Gfs_ptype_slp_east_13

At this point, it is too soon to speculate on if it could accumulate, but you know we will be watching!

Behind this system, it looks to turn even colder for Thanksgiving.

Jude will have a full update first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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NWS Issues Wind Advisory!

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Wind Advisory for all of North-Central Kentucky and most of Southern Indiana.  The Advisory goes into effect at 4 AM ET tonight and remains in effect through 6 PM ET tomorrow

Advisory

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT
  PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
  WILL BE LIKELY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT
  THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM DAWN MONDAY MORNING
  THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES OR POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN. ISOLATED
  POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIVING WILL BE
  DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE.

Let's time out the wind with the latest GFS model data...

The GFS is projecting winds to steadily increase for the remainder of the day with gusts peaking to between 30 and  40 mph by mid evening.

Wind01

 Winds continue to howl overnight with gusts expecting to exceed 40 mph by morning.

Wind03

High winds continue in the 40 to 45 mph range through the morning hours.  

Wind04

A few gusts could approach 50 before they slowly diminish by late in the day on Monday.

Be careful if you plan to be on the road later tonight or tomorrow especially if you drive a high profile vehicle.  

I'll have a full update on how much rain to expect and how high those winds could go later this evening on WDRB News at 10.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Video Of The Day: Surfing Lake Erie During Snowstorm!

During the massive snowstorm in western New York, two surfers hit the waves on Lake Erie. It was 26 degrees with winds whipping up to 35 miles an hour when Christian Edie and her fiance Kevin Cullen, decided to put on dry suits and attempt this daring stunt. Keep in mind the water temperature of Lake Erie was still a balmy 45 degrees. The differecne between the cold winds blowing over the relatively warm lake water is what causes the enhanced snow this time of the year. While filming, they had to stop rolling several times to clear the ice off the camera. Watch this crazy couple surf the swells of Lake Erie in near whiteout conditions...

 

Video Courtesy: Shazzy Mazzy7

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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11/22/2014

Big Storm Arrives Sunday with Heavy Rain and Strong Winds!

Following a dry and very pleasant Saturday that featured some mild temperatures in the 60's, BIG changes can be expected as we head into your Sunday.  

Currently, we are tracking a pair of low pressure systems.  

Satrad

The first across Southern Texas bringing very heavy rain and some strong storms to portions of the Gulf Coast.   

The Second low is located over Colorado bringing showers to portions of the Plains and snows to the higher elevations in the Rockies.  

Rad3

These two storms are expected to merge while rapidly strengthening during the day tomorrow bringing some BIG CHANGES to our weather in the process.

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT shows an overcast sky out the door tomorrow with only a few isolated showers.

Advancetrak

Showers become scattered by lunch with moisture rapidly increasing to the south.

Advancetrak2

Rain becomes widespread by early afternoon and locally heavy. 

Advancetrak3

Moderate to heavy rain continues with rumbles of thunder possible through the afternoon.

Advancetrak4

Scattered showers and a few storms are expected to remain through the evening.

Advancetrak5

We'll see the chance of rain continuing overnight Sunday night and into early on Monday.  

So how much rain could we see? 

I think we are looking at widespread 0.75" to 1.5" rainfall amounts across our area.  Not enough to cause any major issues, but a good soaking.  Watch for ponding on the roadways!  

Will there be a severe threat?  

In my opinion, not really.  Although there will be  A TON of energy associated with this system, there simply wont be enough instability in our area to create much if any thunderstorm problems here locally.  However, a few isolated strong storms may be possible into far Southwestern portions of Kentucky. 

What else could be of concern?

The wind could become an issue as we head into Sunday night and into the day on Monday. 

Wind region

The latest run of the GFS is really packing a punch with 40 to near 50 mph wind gusts in our area Monday morning.  These winds are in association with the strong low pressure system that develops tomorrow and a powerful cold front that sweeps through first thing on Monday.  

Moral of the story... Keep the rain gear handy tomorrow and be prepared for those winds to howl heading into the workweek! 

Rick will be in with a full update on what to expect first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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What's The Coldest Day Of The Year?

As winter approaches, much of the United States is beginning to brace for the cold, while some areas have already experienced their coldest day of the year. To give you a better idea of the coldest time of year for your area, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center has created a new “Coldest Day of the Year” map.

This map is derived from the 1981-2010 U.S. Climate Normals —"the Normals," for short. The Normals are 30-year averages of climate conditions from weather station data across the country, including the average low temperature for each day. From these values, scientists can identify which day of the year, on average, has the lowest minimum temperature, a.k.a. the “coldest day."

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Image Courtesy: NOAA

According to this map, Kentuckiana typically experiences it's coldest day in the middle of January.

Historically, the western half of the Lower 48 has its coldest day in December, near the beginning of winter. In contrast, most eastern locations have their coldest day in January. In addition, areas that average the most snow cover, such as the Northeast and high-altitude regions in the West, tend to reach their climatological coldest day much later in the winter, likely because snow reflects much more sunlight than bare ground. Other conditions being equal, the more sunlight the ground reflects, the less solar heating the location experiences.

Normals for temperature are important indicators used in forecasting and monitoring by many U.S. economic sectors. Knowing the timing and probability of the year's lowest temperatures can help energy companies prepare for rising heating demand. Temperature Normals are also useful planning tools for the healthcare, construction, and tourism industries. You may even want to check the Normals before planning your next event or vacation.

Blog

Image Courtesy: NOAA

While the map shows the coldest days of the year on average throughout the United States, this year’s actual conditions may vary widely based on weather and climate patterns. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on U.S. Climate Normals data from the National Climatic Data Center. Caption by Susan Osborne.

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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11/21/2014

Discussing Weekend Rain & Storm Chances...

We finally get a chance to thaw out this weekend! After dealing with near record cold and snow earlier in the week, it's hard to believe that we are now focusing on the threat for strong thunderstorms. If you are on the verge of going stir crazy, and you want to spend time outdoors then Saturday is your chance. Even though we are going to see more clouds than sun, there will hardly be any rain. We have a tiny 20% chance for a spotty shower or sprinkle, but a majority of us end up completely dry. Highs rebound back to where they should be for this time of the year as we make it into the upper 50's and low 60's. Southerly breezes on Saturday get fierce on Sunday. A powerful low pressure explodes as it moves into the Great Lakes region...

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Even without a thunderstorm, winds could whip around near 40 mph. The low-level flow with this system is very potent with winds over 70 mph 5,000 ft. above the surface. A couple storms may tap into some of this energy late Sunday and again early Monday. The severe risk is extremely low, but don't be surprised if we get a couple strong wind gust reports. Aside from being windy, Sunday also looks wet. Rounds of rain and storms will move across the area Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with most spots picking up close to an inch...

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Clouds will hang tough early next week as the next blast of cold air arrives. High temperatures hang out in the upper 30's and 40's much of Thanksgiving week. There is even the chance for some light snow. Marc Weinberg will have the very latest tonight on WDRB! Enjoy the weekend!

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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11/20/2014

Video Of The Day: Drone Shows Aerial View Of West Seneca, NY...

West Seneca, New York resident Jim Grimaldi shot stunning 4K video using a drone in the midst of Tuesday’s unbelievable snowstorm. Grimaldi published the footage on Tuesday, giving a unique aerial view of the snow-encased neighborhood. Nearly 100 inches of snow could fall in parts of western New York this week! As milder temperatures push north this weekend, melting snow may cause extreme flooding issues. Check out the drone footage below...

 

Video Courtesy: James Grimaldi

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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