We are about to see a powerful front move into our area and it will absolutely have impacts on our area. This front will allow cold air to surge from early next week through the middle part of the week. When cold air surges, we normally see some type of precipitation occur. In this blog, I want to discuss the change from rain to snow and how much could accumulate.
Transition From Rain To Snow
The first part of this story will begin late in the day on Sunday as our arctic cold front approaches the area. This should generate showers late in the day (after sunset) on Sunday but it does appear the ground temperatures will be too warm to support anything other than rain on the actual cold front. Notice AdvanceTrak bringing the initial batch through as rain. As you look, you will see the timestamp on the top right part of each image.
With the cold air filtering in on Monday, we should see a setup that is solid to support high intensity snow squalls. Remember, these are the winter version of the summer t-storm so you can get high intensity bursts for periods of time. The data shows the cold surge will be best on Monday and Tuesday meaning the snow squall chance is best on these two days.
GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Monday
Notice the solid cold surge occurring on Monday which is favorable for snow squalls.
GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Tuesday
Notice the same cold surge occurring on Tuesday supporting more snow showers and snow squalls.
GFS Temperatures 1 Mile Above The Ground Wednesday
By Wednesday, the cold surge is subsiding and the snow showers should as well.
How Much Snow Could Fall?
The computer models have been quite consistent with this storm system showing light accumulations are possible. When I say light, I mean an inch or two is totally possible. I will stop the computer models at Monday 5 pm, Tuesday 5 pm, and Wednesday 5 pm so you can get an idea of how much total has fallen in each timeframe. These totals are cumulative, so NOT in addition. Notice the name of each computer model and timestamp is on the top right part of each image.
GFS Computer Model
Notice the GFS shows generally 1" - 2" will fall on Monday and Tuesday with an isolated total to near 3".
EURO Computer Model
Notice the EURO computer model also shows generally 1" - 2" will fall on Monday and Tuesday. There is no question that this could lead to some slick roadways.
My Thoughts On Snow Totals For Next Week
The data continues to show a very good setup for high intensity snow squalls on Monday and Tuesday of next week. These snow squalls can produce lower visibility at times and very much have the ability to produce road coverings. The data suggest once we hit about 7 am on Monday, the atmosphere should be cold enough to support only frozen precipitation and the change would be sharp. This takes ice off the table in this kind of a situation. AdvanceTrak does show the snow squalls beginning on Monday.
This seems like a solid candidate for a light accumulation over a couple day period. I think a 1" total for many of us is likely and some could get closer to 2", especially in our NE counties. The will fall over 2 days so it will mitigate the impact some, but there will still likely be slick roads by Tuesday in parts of the area.
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