The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather for areas along and north of I-64 including Louisville metro for this evening.
Here's what Storm Prediction Center is saying...
ERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...
SEVERAL AREAS/BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS
MORNING AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF INITIAL
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAKENING OF THE CAP FROM EAST CENTRAL/SERN MO INTO SRN
INDIANA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN 25-35 KT WSWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT MAINLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. ACTIVITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
As scattered t-storms develop in a moisture rich environment, they will have the ability to tap into an EXTREMELY unstable environment with most unstable CAPE's (convective available potential energy) maximizing at more than 4,000 j/kg over the Wabash River Valley late this afternoon. CAPE's remain at a robust 3,000+ over our Indiana Counties.
Mid Level Flow
Meanwhile, the mid level flow is showing good steering winds aloft oriented from the W/NW to the E/SE across our area this evening.
This would allow any storms that fire over the Wabash River Valley to dive in our direction this evening.
Timing out the Storms...
Although there is considerable model uncertainty about the possible evolution of storms, here's a look at a recent AdvanceTrak (HRRR) run giving you a general idea of what to expect...
What do I think?
While not a guarantee for storms in our area, the chance appears to be increasing especially for our Indiana counties where about 60% coverage can be expected.
For Louisville and points to the south, activity looks to be a bit more scattered the the potential will be there for gusty high winds with any storms that do develop.
Stay tuned to WDRB for a full update on what to expect this evening.
WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell
Find me on Facebook!
Follow me on Twitter!
Follow me on Instagram!
Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org