03/27/2015

Top Ten Tornadoes of All Time for Central Kentucky and Southern Indiana

Each year, the United States experiences an average of 1200 tornadoes. Most of these storms are weak, with wind speeds under 100 mph. Many strike in rural areas and cause little damage, and most have paths well under one mile in length. However, a few of these storms develop into something much more. For reasons not yet entirely understood, some of these twisters turn into monsters, with wind speeds approaching 300 mph, leaving swaths of destruction and death in their wake.

While many of these tornadoes touch down across the Great Plains, a few have made their way into southern Indiana and central Kentucky over the years. In an effort to celebrate, remember, and respect our amazing weather, we at the Louisville National Weather Service Forecast Office have made an attempt to gather the ten most significant tornadoes to have struck this region in recorded history into one list. We present that list here. It should be understood how difficult it is to confine nearly two hundred years of tornado climatology into a list of just ten single tornadoes; there will no doubt be differences in opinion. It is also understood that for those who are left to pick through the destruction left in a tornado’s wake or are left to mourn the loss of a loved one taken by nature’s fury, that single storm will forever be the most significant, whether it struck one house or one hundred. In organizing this list we endeavored to consider several factors, including number of fatalities, estimated wind speed, path length, and monetary amount of damage. If you wish to express your feelings about this list, or if you have personal stories or pictures you'd like to share, please e-mail us at w-lmk.webmaster@noaa.gov. Please let us know if we may include your comments or experience here on this page.

 

 

1. Louisville Tornado of 1890

March 27, 1890

Louisville in 1890
Destruction in Louisville Along Main Street Between Eleventh and Twelfth Streets

This F-4 tornado struck Louisville just before 8:00 PM on March 27th, 1890. It began in extreme western Jefferson County before tracking 15 miles through Louisville and into Clark County, Indiana. When the tornado lifted, 76 people had lost their lives, with at least 200 more injured. In downtown, the hardest-hit district was from the intersection of Algonquin Parkway and Thirty-Fourth Street northeastward through California and Russell into the west side of Louisville's Central Business District. The tornado roared into the Ohio River at the foot of Seventh Street, struck downtown Jeffersonville, and turned right and re-crossed the Ohio River coming back into Louisville where it severely damaged the water tower at the end of today's Zorn Avenue.

The worst tragedy of the storm took place at Falls City Hall at 1124 West Market Street. A lodge meeting was taking place on the second floor of the building, while on the main floor several dozen children were taking dancing lessons with their mothers. As the great wind slammed into the building, windows shattered and the second floor fell onto the main level, followed by the rest of the building collapsing in on itself. An estimated 44 men, women, and children perished in the building's rubble, which remains as one of the highest single-building death tolls in the nation.

 

 

2. New Albany F-4

March 23, 1917

New Albany in 1917
A Home Destroyed in New Albany

This twister struck just after 3:00 pm on March 23rd, 1917. It hit a few miles west of New Albany before roaring through the north side of the city and eventually dissipating in Harrod’s Creek, Kentucky. The damage on the north side of New Albany caused nearly $19 million in damage in today’s dollars. The 400 yard-wide tornado claimed 46 lives over its 15 mile long path, including 8 deaths at a wood processing plant, and 5 deaths at an elementary school. Several other children were killed on their way home from school. The high number of fatalities over a relatively short path gives this tornado an average of 1 death every 1/3 mile, and makes it one of the deadliest tornadoes to ever strike the Kentuckiana area.

Photo: News and Tribune

 

3. Brandenberg Tornado of 1974
April 3, 1974
 

Brandenburg in 1974
Destruction in Brandenberg

This was one of the two F-5 tornadoes to strike the NWS Louisville County Warning Area. The twister touched down during mid-afternoon in the midst of the largest tornado outbreak to ever strike the United States at the time. The tornado began 5 miles southwest of Hardinsburg, in Breckinridge County, Kentucky. The funnel clipped the north side of Hardinsburg before moving northeast into Meade County. As the twister set its sights on the town of Brandenburg, it strengthened into an 800 yard-wide monster. The tornado ripped a path of destruction through town, destroying 140 buildings and killing over 30 people. The twister eventually dissipated in Harrison County, Indiana, 32 miles from its starting point.

Photo: Hancock Clarion

 

4. 1925 F-4
March 18, 1925
Holland, KY, in 1925
This twister began in early evening on March 18th, 1925 in Tennessee before moving through Allen, Barren, Monroe and Metcalfe Counties in Kentucky. 39 people were killed over the tornado’s remarkable 60 mile path, including 27 in northern Tennessee, 4 people in Holland, Kentucky, and another 8 in Metcalfe County. This F-4 was part of the same outbreak that spawned the famed Great Tri-State Tornado that killed 700 people across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

 

 

5. Tompkinsville Tornado
May 9, 1933
This F-4 monster began its path of destruction near dusk southwest of Tompkinsville, Kentucky before making an incredible 60 mile trek northeast into Russell County, where it was reported to be a mile wide at times. In Tompkinsville, 60 homes were destroyed and 18 people were killed as the twister moved through. Fourteen people lost their lives in Russell Springs, Kentucky. For much more information, click here.

 

 

6. Louisville Tornado of 1854
August 27, 1854
 
This tornado struck downtown Louisville around noon on Sunday, August 27th, 1854. It first touched down near 25th Street southwest of downtown, and lifted at the intersection of 5th and Main Streets. Although the tornado was only on the ground for 2 ¼ miles, the twister claimed at least 25 lives. Many of those who perished were killed in the Third Presbyterian Church, where 55 people were gathered for Sunday church services. Straight-line winds that accompanied the tornado did significant damage along the Ohio River front, where at least one boat sunk.

 

 

7. Southern Indiana F-5
April 3, 1974
 

Northfield in 1974
A Tossed Car and Toppled Homes After the Super Outbreak

This tornado is the second of two F-5 twisters that struck far southern central Indiana as part of the Super Outbreak on April 3, 1974. This tornado touched down in the early afternoon hours three miles south of Huffman, Indiana, in Perry County. This tornado is not only one of the strongest to ever occur in southern Indiana, but was also one of the longest tracking. The tornado was on the ground for an amazing 65 miles as it tore through rural areas of Perry, Crawford, Harrison, Washington, Clark, and Scott Counties in Indiana. Miraculously, the half-mile wide tornado missed any large communities and only claimed 6 lives.

Photo: Russ Conger/NWS

 

8. Hanover College Tornado
April 3, 1974

Hanover in 1974
An Areial View of Hanover College the Day After the Tornado

This tornado, also part of the Super Outbreak on April 3, 1974, struck just after 2:00 PM. The twister began just northeast of Henryville, Indiana, and moved northeast as it carved out a 35 mile path of destruction through Hanover and North Madison, before lifting 3 miles west of Cross Plains. In Hanover, 32 of the 33 buildings on the campus of Hanover College were damaged or destroyed, and hundred of trees were knocked down, resulting in an estimated $10 million in damange. Fortunately no students were killed. The storm did claim 11 lives, with 7 of those being lost in the Madison area.

Photo: Jim Pirtle, taken from www.april31974.com

 

 

 

9. Central Kentucky F-4
March 27, 1890
 
This twister occurred just after sunset on March 27, 1890, and was part of the same outbreak that spawned the murderous F-4 that tore through downtown Louisville (see number 1). This tornado began northwest of Hartford in Ohio County, and tracked an impressive 60 miles through Grayson, Breckinridge, and Hardin Counties, where it dissipated near Rineyville, Kentucky. Two people were killed in Sulphur Springs, where homes were said to have “vanished”, and another two lives were lost near Rineyville. Three people were killed near Falls of Rough.

 

 

10. Henryville EF-4
March 2, 2012

March 2, 2012 in Washington County IN
The Tornado Roars Through Washington County, IN

This early season tornado averaged a forward speed of 60 mph along its 49-mile long path from Fredericksburg, Indiana to south of Milford, Kentucky. Early in its path it quickly intensified to EF3 strength and ripped asphalt from the ground as it crossed IN 135. The first EF4 damage was soon thereafter in the Daisy Hill community along the Washington/Clark County line. The funnel laid bare a path through Clark State Forest and then tore directly into Henryville, still at EF4 strength, destroying the school complex. The Marysville and Chelsea areas of Clark and Jefferson Counties were next in line and suffered extreme damage. The twister crossed the Ohio River at Lee Bottom and finally dissipated in central Trimble County, Kentucky. Eleven lives were lost.

Photo: Mark Schweiger

 

A special acknowledgement to Tom Reaugh for his advice and the invaluable use of his previous tornado climatology research.

Images and Information Provided by the National Weather Service in Louisville, KY

 

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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03/26/2015

Progressively Colder Weather Arriving. Wintry Precip Possible!

What a difference a day makes!  Yesterday we saw a good deal of sunshine and highs that topped out in the mid to upper 70's.  Now, temps are about 25 to 30 degrees colder with clouds and rain.  

Jet stream

The slow moving cold front and associated upper level trough of low pressure will continue to bring us a chance of showers and some progressively colder conditions into the day tomorrow.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At1

At2

At3

The shower activity should finally come to an end sometime this evening for the metro area with some decrease in cloud cover overnight.

At4

By morning on Friday, temps look to dip below freezing in many locations.

As the next upper disturbance arrives, scattered showers look to develop into the afternoon hours on Friday.

At5

With surface temps barely into the 40's and colder air aloft, there's a good chance that some of this precip will fall as snow showers.  

Fortunately, no accumulation is expected.  However, with high pressure moving in Friday night, a hard freeze is likely with most locations falling well down into the 20's by Saturday morning.

Be sure to catch Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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03/25/2015

Severe Risk Posted For Our Area Tonight! My Full Assessment Inside...

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued to expand their slight risk of severe weather this afternoon/evening and now it covers about half of our area. They have also increased their chances for damaging winds in our area including part of Louisville. In tonight's blog, I will review the SPC risk and go through a timeline with my thoughts.

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk Tonight

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now has their slight risk expanded far enough east to include much of Louisville. While they do not include our area in the tornado or hail threat, they do have damaging wind threats for much of the area. Here is their latest.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Tonight

Notice SPC now includes Louisville and areas west along I-64 in the slight risk for severe weather. They basically expanded it east about 100 miles versus yesterday.

 

Spc 1 cat

 

Severe Risk 1

 

 

SPC Hail Risk Tonight

Notice SPC does not have us in the severe hail threat.

 

Spc 1 hail

 

SPC Damaging Wind Risk Tonight

Notice SPC has a 15% chance for the slight risk area with a 5% chance for a good chunk of the rest of our area.

 

Spc 1 wind

 

SPC Tornado Threat Tonight

Notice SPC does not have us in the tornado threat tonight.

 

Spc 1 torn

 

 

Discussion Of Our Severe Weather Risk Tonight

 

Severe weather is really a delicate recipe that needs certain ingredients present if we are going to sustain organized severe weather. Since we haven't discussed severe weather in a while, I want to refresh you quickly on the ingredients I look for when assessing whether a severe weather event could occur.

 

Severe Weather Ingredients

 

Since the storms arrive tonight, I don't want to bog you down too badly with data. I will tell you that this all will come down to instability. The NAM, as always, is overly aggressive with instability values this afternoon/evening and the data is simply not verifying. The dew points regionally are struggling and this will drastically effect the amount of instability present for this storm system.

 

Dewpoint Temps DMA

 

The GFS seems to be handling it best and only shows about 250 units of instability near 2 am when the first wave of storms should approach us.

 

Gfs CAPE 1

 

This is virtually no instability whatsoever.

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Wednesday Night

 

The forcing tonight is strong enough to fire storms, but it isn't anything special. The wind energy does meet the minimum threshold to support organized severe weather. The instability is clearly the part of the equation missing. The low dew points (low 50s) and cooler night time temperatures are picked up by the computer models and limit instability. Since instability is the fuel to make severe storms go, without instability one would expect them to flop somewhat as they move across our area. Think about it like this, your car has enough power to quickly get to 65 mph on the highway, but if you don't put the right fuel in the tank it won't go anywhere. Storms work the same when they lack the right fuel.

 

AdvanceTrak shows some storms firing ahead of the line that could be around the metro near 11 pm. The main line approaches the I-65 corridor around 6 am and you can clearly see the storms weaken a ton. That is the weaker instability coming into play.

 

AdvanceTrak 3


AdvanceTrak 4

 

AdvanceTrak 5

AdvanceTrak 6

AdvanceTrak 7
 

AdvanceTrak 8

 

The NWS also seems to agree the threat is isolated at best. Here is their afternoon discussion on the subject...

 

"Main threat appears to be damaging wind as there is a deep layer of 50-60 kt winds, but lack of surface-based instability will really limit the severe potential especially as you head east. Will highlight gusty winds in the Hazardous Weather Outlook but not play it up too much."

 

The bottom line is the instability is simply lacking tonight There is enough wind energy to support a rogue severe storm, but the instability should limit the extent. I can still see a isolated severe storm with the main threat as small hail or damaging winds, but nothing suggests an organized event. Personally I don't think a slight risk of severe weather is justified in this situation and I would have kept the 5% chance to cover a rogue strong storm or two. We will watch it, but an organized severe event still seems very unlikely.

 

 

Remember it is Spring storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

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Slight Risk Issued for Our Area. Severe Storms Possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather for portions of our area for a storm system due to arrive here later tonight.  

Spc

To our west, across portions of the Plains and Ozarks, a Moderate Risk has been issued where the highest threat of tornadoes and large hail will be located.

Locally, the Slight Risk area includes areas along and west of I-65 from near I-64 to the Western Kentucky Parkway.  

Spc2

The main risk will be for damaging winds in our area with small hail also possible.

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

At1

At2

At3

At4

The highest chance of seeing severe weather will be between midnight and 4 AM.  Storms should weaken as they move off towards the east/southeast overnight.  

Overall, the severe threat appears to be low for our area, but we'll be watching.  

Be sure to catch Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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03/24/2015

The Storm Prediction Center Does Have Severe Weather Probabilities For Our Area Late Wednesday... Let's Discuss!

As expected, the Storm Prediction Center has nudged their slight risk of severe weather toward our area for Wednesday night and expanded their 5% chance of severe weather. In tonight's blog, I want to go through the SPC severe weather forecast, break down the setup, and give my assessment of the risk. Let's dive in.

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Wednesday / Wednesday Night

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continued to nudge their slight risk of severe weather eastward in their latest update. The slight risk extends to about 2 counties west of our area now.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday / Wednesday Night

Notice SPC now includes western IN/KY in their slight risk and has placed our area in their marginal category. Due to the confusion with the words "marginal" and "enhanced", we will not be using those in our forecast at this point. The bottom line is the marginal means a 5% chance of severe weather.

 

Spc 2 cat

 

Severe Risk 1

 

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday / Wednesday Night

Notice SPC has a 5% of severe weather for virtually our entire area Wednesday night.

 

Spc 3 prob

 

 

My Thoughts On Our Severe Weather Risk On Wednesday / Wednesday Night

 

Severe weather is really a delicate recipe that needs certain ingredients present if we are going to sustain organized severe weather. Since we haven't discussed severe weather in a while, I want to refresh you quickly on the ingredients I look for when assessing whether a severe weather event could occur.

 

Severe Weather Ingredients

 

Forcing

The forcing Wednesday night continues to look good enough to support showers and t-storms, but not strong enough to overpower weaknesses in the other 2 severe weather fields. The front will be very strong, but it won't get here until Thursday and in a sense miss the window.

Notice the large but diffuse storm on Wednesday night in the mid levels.

 

Nam_500_vort 1

 

The front looks solid, but you can see it is in northern Illinois when the window for stronger storms is open.

 

NAM 850 Temps 1

 

This means the forcing is easily sufficient to fire storms, but not strong enough to overcome weaknesses in the other 2 severe weather fields.


 

Wind Energy

To support organized severe weather, we need to see a wind of at least 35 knot / 40 mph somewhere from the surface up to 6 miles above the ground. The wind energy on Wednesday is strong enough to support organized severe weather, but far from robust. The latest data shows much less "turning of the wind with height" but enough to still define this as slight directional wind shear. Remember that directional wind shear can enhance the severe threat and in this case give a slightly better chance of hail.

 

NAM Winds At The Surface Wednesday Night

The NAM shows the winds are from the south at the surface late Wednesday at about 10 mph. These are certainly not strong winds.

NAM_SFC_wnd_1

NAM Winds 1 Mile Above The Ground Late Wednesday

The NAM shows of about 40 knots / 45  mph just a mile above the ground. These are not overly strong winds, but they still meet minimum criteria (35 knots) for organized severe weather. The direction shifts to the southwest. This shift is smaller than the data showed yesterday, but still present.

NAM_850_wnd_1

The wind shear is directional wind shear, but much weaker than the data showed yesterday. This is a good thing.

 

Instability

Instability in the cooler seasons almost always tells the story about our severe weather potential. The data shows dew points in the 50s through Wednesday night and that is simply not very much moisture at the surface. Low moisture at the surface traditionally equals lower instability values and that has been the trend in the data. The NAM (which is normally bullish) shows the most instability with values peaking near 1,000 units Wednesday night.

 

NAM CAPE 1

 

The GFS shows almost no instability whatsoever on Wednesday. For what it is worth, the EURO computer model agrees.

 

Gfs CAPE 1

 

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Wednesday Night

 

The forcing late Wednesday continues to look somewhat "blah" for our area. It is enough to fire rain and t-storms, but not enough to overpower weaknesses in the wind or instability fields. The wind energy does meet the minimum threshold to support organized severe weather. There is directional wind shear but the most recent data downplays it quite a bit. The instability is definitely consistently showing up in the low category with the exception of the overly aggressive NAM compute model. The low dew points (low 50s) and the fact that the storms come through in the cold part of the data makes the low instability values believable. Wind energy is certainly supportive, but remember organized severe weather requires all three ingredients to be present and they just are not.

 

AdvanceTrak shows a wave of stronger storms preceding the line of severe storms to our west. This initial wave of storms moves across the area near 1 am Thursday in this run of AdvanceTrak. This appears to be an anomaly in the data, but a trend to watch. Notice the strong storms approaching our area at 4 am Thursday and collapsing when they hit our area. That is the weaker instability coming into play.

 

AdvanceTrak 3

  AdvanceTrak 4


  AdvanceTrak 5


  AdvanceTrak 6


  AdvanceTrak 7


AdvanceTrak 8

 

AdvanceTrak 9

 

The bottom line is the instability is highly questionable on Wednesday night. There is enough wind energy to support a rogue severe storm, but the instability should limit the extent. I can see a isolated severe storm with the main threat as small hail or damaging winds, but nothing suggests an organized event. The Storm Prediction Center using the 5% chance seems justified in this situation. We will watch it, but an organized severe event is off the table at this point.

 

 

Remember it is Spring storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

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Severe Risk: Timing Out Showers & Storms...

Lots of clouds and cooler temperatures today with some hit or miss showers. Not everyone will get wet! The highest concentration of rain should set up along and north of I-64...

Blog5

2

A developing warm front lifts through late tonight and early tomorrow bringing more scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder...

3
 

Southerly breezes develop Wednesday afternoon and the sun makes an appearance. This will help push temperatures into the 70's... 

5

Don't get used to it. A line of storms arrive Wednesday night/Thursday morning with heavy rain, intense lightning and gusty winds. While the severe threat is on the low end, we can't rule out a warning or two west of I-65...

6

7

Showers may hang around for a good chunk of Thursday as colder air rushes in. A winter-like chill arrives late week as highs struggle to climb into the 40's...

9

12

 

 

03/23/2015

Severe Weather Risk Posted For Our Region Wednesday Night... My Full Analysis Inside!

Well, we have finally have seen the seasons change a bit and we know that this begins severe weather season for our area. I do enjoy the warmer weather, but I am not fan of storm season because of the obvious risks the storms pose.  I will say it looks like only a single day before we go cold again, but I do want to discuss this storm for Wednesday night and it's risk of producing severe weather in our area. In tonight's blog, I will discuss the Storm Prediction Center Risk and have my full analysis of the setup.

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk For Wednesday / Wednesday Night

 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has been nudging the slight risk closer to our area over the last day and a half, but as of right now they still are not including our area in the slight risk. The slight risk extends as far east as around the IN/IL line.

 

SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday / Wednesday Night

Notice SPC is not including us in the slight risk but it isn't that far away from our western counties.

 

Spc 3 cat

 

Severe Risk 1

 

 

SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather Wednesday / Wednesday Night

Notice SPC has a 5% of severe weather for southern Indiana just west of I-65.

 

Spc 3 prob

 

 

My Thoughts On Our Severe Weather Risk On Wednesday / Wednesday Night

 

To get organized severe weather, we traditionally need specific ingredients present. Since we haven't discussed severe weather in a while, I want to refresh you quickly on the ingredients I look for when assessing whether a severe weather event could occur.

 

Severe Weather Ingredients

 

Forcing

The forcing Wednesday night is from a somewhat diffuse upper level storm and a strong front that will eventually blast across the area on Thursday. The upper level low is really nothing special to be honest.

 

Nam_500_vort 1

 

The front is actually very strong, but notice by about midnight (when the storms come through), the front is still a long way from our area. The front by storm time is still in northern Indiana.

 

Nam_850_1

 

This means the forcing is easily sufficient to fire storms, but not strong enough to overcome weaknesses in the other 2 severe weather fields.


 

Wind Energy

The wind energy on Wednesday is strong enough to support organized severe weather but not wind energy I would refer to as "strong". It is slightly above minimum criteria. The only part about the wind energy that concerns me a little is that there is "directional wind shear" present. What that means is the winds change direction as we climb in the atmosphere and this can enhance the severe risk slightly.

 

NAM Winds At The Surface Wednesday Night

The NAM shows the winds are from the southeast at the surface late Wednesday at about 10 - 15 mph. While these winds aren't strong, the direction is of interest.

NAM_SFC_wnd_1
NAM Winds 1 Mile Above The Ground Late Wednesday

The NAM shows of about 40 - 45 knots / 45 - 50 mph just a mile above the ground. These are not overly strong winds, but they still meet minimum criteria (35 knots) for organized severe weather. The direction shifts to the southwest and that is quite a directional shift in the wind from the surface.

NAM_850_wnd_1
The wind shear is what we define as directional wind shear and that is always something I like to watch a little more closely.

 

 

Instability

Instability is obviously going to tell the story with marginal wind energy and forcing that is nothing special. The storms don't appear like they will approach our area until around midnight (+/-2 hours) and that is the cool part of the day. In March, the cool part of the day is important because temps can drop very quickly this time of the year. The computer models are showing what we expect... not a whole lot of instability. The NAM is showing about 1,000 units of instability but it does tend to be quite generous with instability forecasts.

 

NAM CAPE 1

 

The GFS is showing much less instability which would just not be enough to get it done.

 

Gfs CAPE 1

 

 

My Thoughts On Severe Weather Chances Wednesday Night

 

The forcing late Wednesday is nothing special. It is enough to fire rain and t-storms, but not enough to overpower the atmosphere toward severe weather. The wind energy is enough to support organized severe weather but not what I would define as strong. There is directional wind shear and I do tend to watch that a little more closely simply because it can enhance the severe threat a bit. The instability is really pretty low for our area Wednesday night. The low dewpoints and cooler night time temperatures lend credibility to the low instability forecasts and I believe the data. Low instability with low/moderate wind shear normally doesn't produce widespread severe weather in our area, but can support an isolated severe threat.

 

AdvanceTrak shows the storms holding together through the western part of our area, but going flat as the storms approach the I-65 corridor. Notice in our western counties, the storms still look solid but weaken near I-65.

 

AdvanceTrak 3

 

AdvanceTrak 4

 

AdvanceTrak 5

 

AdvanceTrak 6

 

AdvanceTrak 7

 

The bottom line is I cannot rule out a rogue severe storm west of I-65, but the weak instability is the key. With only low dewpoints, you feed the storm poor fuel, and just like your car, storms don't work well with poor fuel. We will watch it, but an organized severe event is off the table at this point.

 

 

Remember it is Sprin storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".

 

If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674#!/pages/Marc-Weinberg/171330336238674

 

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Weather Whiplash: Discussing Storms and Snow...

Spring holds on for the next few days before winter makes a comeback. After starting out with tons of sunshine, clouds tend to roll in this afternoon. A couple spotty showers are possible this evening as a weakening disturbance slides into the Ohio Valley. Most of these remain north of I-64 and anything that falls should be pretty light...

2

The pattern stays active midweek with multiple shower and storm chances. A stationary front gets hung up across the area Tuesday. This feature generates a good deal of clouds, scattered showers, and a sharp contrast in temperatures. Parts of Indiana may be stuck in the upper 40's while Southern Kentucky may jump into the low 60's. I think here in Louisville we should end up in the 50's for afternoon highs...

3

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning a warm front whips us with another round of showers, perhaps even a rumble of thunder. By Wednesday afternoon we soar into the mid 70's on gusty southwest winds...

5

Don't get used to it! A cold front marches in Wednesday night and Thursday morning with a line of noisy thunderstorms. While the severe risk looks low, there will be heavy rain. intense lightning and gusty winds. The situation needs to be watched closely as small changes could increase the threat. Temperatures drop 50 degrees behind the front with highs in the 40's Friday and lows in the 20's by Saturday. It's cold enough that snow might begin mixing in with rain showers late Friday and Friday night. Marc Weinberg will have a full update today at 4 on WDRB!

 

 

 

 

03/22/2015

Wild Swings Expected This Week with Thunderstorms and Snow Possible!

Although not as warm as yesterday, it turned out to be a nice finish to the weekend with temps close to average for the third week of March.

Almanac

Temps look to remain pretty close to normal on Monday, but some wild swings are expected for the middle and second half of the week with highs ranging from mid 70's on Wednesday to lower 40's by Friday!  

Gfx2

A rather active jet stream pattern looks to develop later in the week as a dynamic upper low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest sends several waves of energy our way in the days ahead.

Jet stream

This will lead to several chances for precipitation starting on Tuesday.  

Gfx3

We could see some heavy rain and thunderstorms late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  

All of this looks to be followed by a good chance of both rain AND snow showers on Friday as temps plummet.  

By Saturday morning, we will likely be looking at a hard freeze for the entire region with temps projected to fall well down into the 20's.  

Rick will be in with a full update on our WILD forecast this week, first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com

Spring Turns Back Into Winter Later This Week...

The first weekend of spring has been a winner so far with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures! Don't pack away those big, puffy jackets just yet because winter plans on making a comeback. A shot of cold Canadian air looks to invade the Ohio Valley later this week. Highs on Friday will struggle to make it into the 40's and I think some spots won't even get out of the 30's...

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Saturday morning is going to sting as temperatures drop down into the 20's for all of Kentuckiana. Both the EURO and GFS show similar temperatures around 6 AM... 

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Saturday doesn't look any better with more chilly air on tap. It's a tough pill to swallow following the 60's and 70's we are enjoying this weekend, but spring is full of these up's and down's. We will have to endure one more round of highs in the 30's and 40's before the cold air goes back north...

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Make sure you tune in with Jeremy Kappell tonight for details on our rain & snow chances.