After a prolonged period of unseasonably cool conditions, upper level winds look to carry in a much warmer air mass as we go through the weekend and head into early next week.
Forecast models are in good agreement with the placement of an upper high pressure that is currently located across the Southwestern US. This high is forecasted to build towards the east over the weekend and looks to be located across the Southeastern US by early on Monday.
The air mass underneath this system is expected to warm with morning lows in the 50's and highs warming thru the 70's over the weekend to near 80° on Monday!
Unfortunately for most, however, our "Indian Summer" might be short lived though.
The passage of a well advertised cold front late Tuesday and into Tuesday night will bring us a good chance of showers and storms and looks to be followed by cooler conditions into the middle of next week with highs limited to the 60's by Wednesday. (For reference, mid 60's are considered average for this time of the year)
OK, so what about Halloween?
Now, everything you have read until now should come as no big surprise as it has been forecasted for several days now and confidence is good on the major points mentioned above.
Beyond this time frame we have some seriously large discrepancies. By that I mean, there is considerable uncertainty on what to expect for Halloween.
Over the last few days, models have flip flopped more than once on what may be coming our way late next week. With that being said, a trend now appears to be developing within the main models.
The most recent run of the Euro and 3 of the last 4 runs of the GFS are now developing a very deep trough of low pressure over the Eastern US next Friday (Halloween).
If this scenario does indeed pan out, then it would no doubt bring us a surge of very cold conditions, perhaps coldest we've seen yet.
So how cold are we talking about?
The 12z run of the GFS paints a bone-chilling picture with evening temps in the 30's for the Trick-or-Treaters!
Factoring in wind, and it could feel even colder with current wind chill forecasts running in the 20's for Friday evening! Brrr!!!
Now, before you go and trade in your kids Elsa costume for an eskimo suit, know that we are still 8 days away from Halloween and as mentioned above, confidence is not that great for this part of the forecast.
However, considering so many people have outdoor plans next Friday evening, I thought now was a good time to give a heads up as to what may be brewing.
We should know much more in the next couple of days. Stay tuned!
Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell
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