10/31/2014

Weather Blog: Rain Changes To Snow

From Jude Redfield...

    HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!! Get ready for cold, wind driven rain showers to take shape during the afternoon. Temps fall through the 40s as we get ready to hit the streets for hopefully a fun night of trick or treating. If we do have a bit of good news to pass along about trick or treating its that not everyone will see precip between 5pm - 8pm   A few showers will be on the radar, and gradually transition to snow showers between 7pm - 11pm. Hopefully your neighborhood will be one of the dry locations.  *MAKE SURE TO DRESS FOR THE COLD! WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30s INTO THE 20s THIS EVENING*

*****SNOW TALK*****

    On the backside of this low pressure a band of snow forms and will produce intense bursts for sections of Kentucky (including Kentuckiana). The best chance arrives between 9pm - 4am tonight In locations near I-65 and all points east into central KY.

    I have about a 99.9% high level of confidence at the very least some areas will absolutely see some snow tonight. I also feel confident that some of these bursts could provide light accumulations where they develop. I wouldn't be too worried about any accumulation of ice or snow on the roads. They should remain only wet. If you are up late tonight or early tomorrow morning and see snow accumulation please share these photos with us. RICK DELUCA would love to share these on WDRB IN THE MORNING starting at 6am on Saturday.  If you do have any accumulation you better look early because it will melt fast. 

    If you aren't a fan of winter weather just yet then you will love that the high will near 70 by Tuesday. How about that?!?!?!  Have a great and safe Halloween tonight! -Jude-

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10/30/2014

Discussing Our Halloween Snow Chance...

Everyone seems to be gossiping about our chance for snow on Halloween. Now that we are getting closer to the event, it's time to take a closer look at the computer data. First, I want to emphasize that this is NOT going to be a major winter storm. A bulk of what falls on Friday will be liquid. Plan on dealing with some light rain at times daylight hours. It could possibly change over to a wintry mix during the evening hours. The better chance for snow showers/flurries would actually arrive once trick or treating is over. I would be more concerned with the gusty winds and bitter cold temps if you are outside with the kids. It appears that late Friday night a 3-6 hour window appears where snow showers could provide LIGHT accumulations on some grassy surfaces and cars. The maps I am about to show you are not a forecast! The take-home message is that all models agree on the idea that parts of our area could see snow...

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People who live along and east of the I-65 corridor may wake up early Saturday morning and see a little coating on elevated surfaces. Others may not see a single flake as the rain/snow/sleet showers will be scattered in nature. If you are worried about traveling late Friday and early Saturday, don't be. Pavement temperatures are WAY too warm for anything to stick to the roads and sidewalks. A lingering flurry can't be ruled out as Saturday gets started, otherwise the cold will be the main focus for the rest of the weekend. It will feel a lot like winter so dress for a serious chill! 

 

-Rick DeLuca

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The NWS Now Issuing Warnings About Freezing Weather Approaching! Includes Metro...

The NWS has issued a Freeze Watch for our area Friday and Saturday night. Our northern counties are now in a Freeze Warning. This is a big deal because it traditionally means the end of the growing season is at hand. Here are the counties included...

 

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...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER READINGS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HEART OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

* TIMING...BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING TOO FAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. CALMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MEAN A QUICKER DROP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE FREEZING MARK LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BRING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE GROWING SEASON. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A BRIEF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW RATE IS HIGHEST. ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN SOME SPOTS MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

 

 

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Weather Blog: Halloween Snow Outlook

From Jude Redfield...

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    After the back and forth predicitons for Halloween in the Ohio Valley over the last week everything is fianlly coming together to show a much more clear picture for our rain/snow outlook.

    The first chance for sprinkles and showers should arrive later tonight. For the football game we have an outside risk for a light, brief shower by the time the game ends, but this really shouldn't amount to much. Temps will be in the upper 40s by the time the game winds down. A few showers will continue on and off during the day on Friday. The wind picks up and the temps fall through the 40s. *Some thunder and lightning is even possible in sections of the Ohio Valley* as this vigorous low pressure moves from the Great Lakes through the Tennessee Valley. This goes to show the kind of energy this low pressure has.

    The track it takes isn't very common, but when it does happen it USUALLY produces flurries/snow showers on the backside. Kentuckiana is in the zone where flurries/snow showers are very much possible by Friday night.  While we are trick or treating don't be surprised if this does occur. The better chance would actually arrive once trick or treating is over believe it or not. It appears that late Friday night a 3-6 hour window appears where snow showers could provide minor accumulations on some grassy surfaces. The best chance for any minor accumulations would end up along and east of I-65.  A lingering flurry is possible early Saturday morning, but the cold day with stubborn cloud cover headlines the start to the weekend because that is something everyone will deal with while not everyone will see the snow. **Want to emphasize that roads, sidewalks etc aren't going to be icy or snow covered as we go trick or treating**

    As long as we dress for the gusty winds & cold temps tomorrow night for trick or treating we should end up in decent shape. Maybe, just maybe some of us will get up early Saturday morning and see some light accumulations of snow on some grass and roof tops.  We shall see... :)

    Brace for the cold air arrival!!!  Cloud cover early Saturday morning will help keep the temps near freezing while clearing Saturday night means lows between 23-30 early Sunday morning. This will be a killing freeze for all. Say good riddance to the pesky insects :)   Plenty of updates to come as we keep tweaking the forecast over the next 24 hours.  Check in with Marc later today   -Jude-

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10/29/2014

Killing Freeze Signals End to the Growing Season!

By definition, A FREEZE occurs anytime the temperature drops to 32° (or colder) during the growing season.  

Although a few rural locations in the viewing area have reported temps into the low 30's, Louisville metro has escaped anything close to freezing so far this season.  

In fact officially we've only dipped into the 30's once this season with a low temp recorded of 38° on October 5th, which was accompanied by widespread reports of scattered frost.

The last time we saw freezing temps in Louisville was back in the spring on April 16th, more than six months ago.  Now, that streak appears to be in serious jeapardy going into this weekend. 

Here comes the cold!

As I wrote about last night, A SERIOUSLY COLD and UNSETTLED PATTERN is developing.

The current run of the GFS shows the massive extent of the impending cold surge.  Notice how far south the 32° line goes by Saturday morning, all the way down into Dixie!! 

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Although the Hi-Res Euro is not quite as aggressive with the initial cold surge, it does drop temps to the freezing mark in Louisville and upper 20's into portions of Southern Indiana.

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Regardless, this looks to be the first wide spread freeze this season.  

But will it be a killer?

By definition a KILLING FREEZE or HARD FREEZE is characterized by low temperatures that drop to 28° and remain below freezing for several hours.  

Although parts of the area could meet this criteria Saturday morning, Sunday morning looks like a better bet.  

Latest Hi-Res Euro data is suggesting that Louisville drops to around 28° with the rest of the area dipping into the middle 20's!

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We haven't seen temps this cold since mid-March and it looks to bring a sure end to the growing season across all of Kentuckiana.   

On a brighter note, the freezing temps will help allergy suffers by reducing mold and other allergens in the air.  

The 30 year average for a HARD FREEZE in Louisville is November 12th.  

Be sure to join Marc with a full update on just how cold it will get on WDRB News this evening.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Weather Whiplash: From Summer To Winter...

Get ready for a shock to the system! The seasons are truly at battle this week as we undergo dramatic changes. Monday was toasty when highs pushed well into the 80's. This flashback to summer came to an end as a cold front swept through Tuesday. It feels more like fall today with the cool breezes and highs in the 60's.

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Looking ahead to Halloween and the upcoming weekend, we are in for a taste of winter! The next storm is already in transit, and its E.T.A. or estimated time of arrival is Friday. Occasional rain showers are likely on Friday as low pressure drives into the Ohio Valley.

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It's taking the cold along for the ride as temps fall through the day on gusty winds. Trick-or-treaters should dress for temps in the 40's & 30's with wind chills in the 20's & teens at times! As the evening wears on, any lingering rain showers may begin to mix with sleet and snow! Areas that see this wintry mix shouldn't expect any sort of accumulation.

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I would be more concerned with the windy and cold weather rather than the *potential* for snow showers. Remember, the scattered nature to the precipitation means some people won't deal with any, while others may see the flakes fly. There is no doubt that the weekend will be COLD! Overnight lows will dip down into the 20's & 30's with highs in the 40's & 50's.  Dust off the winter coats, gloves and hats!

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-Rick DeLuca

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Weather Blog: Winter Weather For Halloween

From Jude Redfield...

    One thing for certain with the upcoming forecast is that the temps are about to drop like a rock. Cold air arrives and we begin the fall Friday afternoon. The coldest time will be early Sunday morning with everyone below freezing.

    At this point the only question mark centers around our snow chance by Friday evening. During the day on Friday our rain chance has risen to 70%. The wind will pick up as a wicked front moves by during the morning and afternoon. Temps will initially be in the low 50s and then drop through the 40s with locally heavy rain showers at times (prehaps some thunder and lightning).  This bundel of energy is IMPRESSIVE and will take a not so typical path from the north almost due south.  The models at this point aren't handling this situation perfectly so expect a few more adjustments between now and Friday. Climatologically speaking we have a very good chance at the very least of seeing scattered snow showers and flurries as the cold air rushes in Friday night.  This doesn't mean we can't go trick or treating!  Just stay bundled up and we should be in decent shape. Light up the fire pit and hand out some candy and all will be good Friday night. Honestly some flurries and snow showers would be better than cold, wind driven rain to really make it nasty for the costumes. COLD RAIN IS THE WORST in my opinion :)

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10/28/2014

Freakish Cold Outbreak Expected Halloween! Frozen Precip Possible!!

Weather models started hinting at this possibility last week, and now it looks like a pretty sure bet that this Halloween will indeed be a very cold one!  

The latest runs of both the GFS and Euro continue to trend more aggressively towards a colder and more unsettled solution for Friday and into the start of the weekend.  

The 12z GFS is now advertising the development of a HUGE TROUGH of low pressure over the Eastern US.  It is now deeper and located further west than it has been in previous runs.  

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Underneath this mammoth trough, the GFS brings down a tongue of VERY COLD or dare I say ARCTIC AIR down into portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest straight out of Eastern Canada Friday evening.

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So how cold are we talking for Halloween?

As it stands, it looks like we'll see highs occuring early in the day, perhaps in the low 50's during the morning or early afternoon hours.  However, temps are expected to fall through the afternoon and evening hours on Friday.  

In addition to dropping temps, the wind will begin to howl as we head into Friday evening.  

TIMING COULDN'T BE WORSE FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS!

The combination of temps dropping through the 40's and a strong north wind will send wind chill values plummeting, unfortunately, just in time for the trick or treaters to begin making their rounds!  

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By late evening, the air temp is expected to fall into the 30's with winds that could gust in excess of 30 mph.  The combination of those two will drop wind chill readings into the 20's! BRRR!!! 

Needless to say, you will need to bundle your little gobblins up in plenty of layers before heading out!

Could we see sleet or snow?  

Unfortunately, in addition to the cold, the chance of showers is looking more likely now too.  

The GFS and Euro are both developing a strong double barreled low pressure system that looks to set up to our east across the Appalachians.  

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As this occurs, strong winds on the back side of the system look to wrap around moisture that initially should fall as rain.  

However, as the colder air invades the area, the precip could mix with or even change over to sleet by mid evening!

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Showers look to diminish overnight, but before doing so, could even come to an end as a few flakes of, yes I have to say it, ssssnnnnnoooowwww!!!  

I know what you are thinking, this is some sort of sick Halloween joke right?  Sorry to say, but I'm not.

Although any frozen precip that occurs isn't expected to amount to anything, the cold will!  

As the arctic air mass continues to invade the area Friday night, it is looking increasingly likely that this will be a KILLING FREEZE for the entire region. 

Just how cold could it get?

The GFS is currently advertising mid to upper 20's across all of Kentuckiana by Saturday morning. 

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This would make it the coldest air mass to reach our area in nearly 8 months!  (The record low, btw, for Saturday morning is 27° set way back in 1873.)

To make matters worse, a blustery north wind looks to continue into the morning hours on Saturday which could produce wind chill readings all the way down into the teens!  OUCH!!!

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The cold looks to continue through the weekend with another freeze expected Saturday night.  

So what do I think? 

I think it's time to prepare for winter.  As we roll back the clocks, November will be arriving with the cold this weekend and although frozen precip is pretty rare this early in the season, a first freeze is not. (Average first freeze is Nov 4th for Louisville)

However, considering we just came off a stretch of 70's and record breaking 80 degree weather over the last few days, this will, without a doubt, come as quite the shock to the system.  

The good news is that this first true taste of winter, although intense, will be a fairly short lived one as 60's and 70's are forecasted to return next week.  

Be sure to join Marc with a full update on WDRB News this evening.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Weather Blog: Rain Hits & Temps Drop

From Jude Redfield...

    Between noon and 5pm most places will see showers and prehaps a clap of thunder. Gusty showers and storms move east around 40mph. This will allow drier air to arrive around dinner time. The temperature drop begins as soon as the rain starts up. By days end many will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

    The real cold blast arrives Friday night into Saturday morning. The growing season comes to an end this weekend. It is that time of the year so we shouldn't be surprised.  -Jude-

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10/27/2014

Weather Blog: Halloween Forecast

From Jude Redfield...

    When forecasting weather it is difficult to give 100% accurate forecasts when you are still a few days away from the event.  The one aspect I can assure with 100% accuracy is the warmth we experience today will be long gone by Friday.  The forecast come trick or treat time looks to be decent, at least the way it stands now.  Will it be pretty chilly? Yes!  Will there be a cool breeze blowing? Most likley  Will it be washed out by heavy rain? I don't think so   Is there a long shot we could have a random shower in our viewing area?  Possible, but not very likely right now.  Right now I have a 20% chance for a shower during the day, but this should move away by the time the evening rolls around.  As trick or treating begins 5pm-6pm we should be falling through the 50s. We will quickly drop into the 40s for the rest of the evening.  If we have on a few layers we should be good to go.  As always adjustments will be made to this outlook over the next few days as we get closer. Lets just hope only minor adjustments are needed, because this isn't too shabby the way it stands. -Jude-

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