07/01/2015

Smoke From Canadian Wildfires Streams South...

The 2015 fire season got off to an unusually early start in Canada when blazes broke out in the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, and Alberta in late May. As the season has progressed, the air in western Canada—as well as large swaths of the United States—grew gray and hazy with smoke. A sharp trough in the jet stream sent a river of smoke all the way down into the Ohio Valley. You can see all of the haze in the sky, which may add an extra orange/red glow to the sun and moon. Check out the image below that shows the smoke down in Mississippi and Arkansas as well!

CI1dpcRWEAATeB5

Image Credit: NASA

A combination of unusually warm temperatures, parched forests, lightning, and strong winds have fueled the outburst of fire. According to the Canadian government, 168 uncontrolled fires and 273 controlled fires were burning in Canada on June 29. More than than 1,300 people have had to evacuate their homes, and health officials have issued health warnings in several provinces because of the smoke.

 

-Rick DeLuca

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A Severe Thunderstorm Watch Is Possible For Parts Of Kentucky...

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...NRN AL...NW GA...SCNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 011629Z - 011730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
Mcd1264
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SHOULD AFFECT THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO WRN TN AND SRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED IN TO THE 80S ALONG MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 2500 J/KG NEAR THE TN-MS STATELINE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN CNTRL KY AND ERN TN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WRN TN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE NASHVILLE WSR-88D VWP SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 KT OF WLY FLOW FROM 2 TO 5 KM AGL. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CELL ORGANIZATIONS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL CAN INTENSIFY AS CELLS MOVE ACROSS CNTRL TN THIS AFTERNOON.


-Rick DeLuca

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06/30/2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for Parts of Area

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for some of our eastern counties until 8 pm ET.

This is an extension of a Watch that had already been posted for Carroll County and portion of Southeast Indiana and Northern Kentucky.  Prior discussion below...

Warnings

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     SOUTHEAST INDIANA
     NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
     EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
     CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO
     WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
     800 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF AN UPPER SYSTEM
   THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...POSING A RISK OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
   CINCINNATI OHIO TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LATROBE
   PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Marc will have a full update on the situation on WDRB News this evening.

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Star Gazers Delight: Jupiter & Venus Collide Tonight!

The alignment of Jupiter and Venus culminates tonight with closest conjunction in next 10 years!

 

Venus and Jupiter are converging for a must-see close encounter at the end of June. It could be the best backyard sky show of 2015.

Video Courtesy NASA

Best viewing for conjunction will occur about an hour after sunset.  Just look towards the west and they will appear as the brightest objects in the sky.  

Although the pair will become visible before the sun tracks down over the horizon, they will grow in brightness as the sky darkens and will make for a dramatic scene in the western sky.

Venus jupiter june 30

Although clouds could partially obscure the view early this evening with a few showers and storms in the area, overall viewing should be pretty good for our central and western counties.  

Enjoy!

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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SPC Says Severe Thunderstorm Watch is Possible

The Storm Prediction Center is considering issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our area.  Here is their discussion...

Mcd1246

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INDIANA INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301832Z - 302100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD...DEEPENING
   CUMULUS FIELD WHERE SFC HEATING OF THE MOIST/UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
   /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM FROM THIS
   ACTIVITY AS PBL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO DIURNALLY
   INVIGORATE...THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PER SFC
   OBS DETRACTS CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...AN
   EXPANDING/UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR CINCINNATI MAY
   SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL KY...WITH ASCENT AT THE COLD
   POOL/S LEADING EDGE OFFERING A CORRIDOR OF GREATER TSTM-RISK INTO
   PARTS OF CNTRL KY. WITH THE LVX VWP SAMPLING AROUND 30 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW...VERTICAL WIND
   PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE
   ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE.

Marc and I will be tracking the situation closely.   Get a full update starting at 4 on WDRB News this evening.

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06/29/2015

From Drought to Deluge!

The amount of rain we have seen lately has been impressive and it came at a good time.

During the nearly two month stretch from April 21 thru June 16 (56 days) Louisville only picked up 3.09" of rain which is less than half of what would be considered normal.  

Remember the Brief Drought?

US Drought Monitor officially placed Louisville and much of our area in a "moderate drought".

Drought monitor

The drought was short lived though as the arrival of former Tropical Storm Bill signaled a change in our pattern and rainfall fortunes.  

Since June 16th, we've more than made up for the lack of spring moisture.  Since June 16th Louisville has picked up a whopping 6.38" of rainfall and there is more to come!

Active Northwesterly Flow

Now we are looking at a persistent trough of low pressure developing in the upper levels over the Eastern US.  

In between this trough and an upper high pressure system located over the Western US are active jet stream winds that dive from Canada into the Eastern US.  

Satrad

Within this "northwesterly flow" are several disturbances that look to bring keep things quite unsettled with  more heavy storms expected over the next several days ahead.  

How Much More Rain? 

The latest run of the GFS (12z) run indicates that the entire area could see widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts by the end of the week.

Rainfall projection2

This more or less aligns with the forecast from the Weather Prediction Center which is projecting locally 5 inches for our Southern Counties.

P168i

If this verifies, then flooding may become an issue by the end of the week.  

Marc will have a full update on those storm chances on WDRB News this evening.

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SPC Issues a Tornado Watch

Ww0369_radar

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 369
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   235 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
     SOUTHERN OHIO
     WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
     900 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL KY
   AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
   EXPECTED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.  A FEW TORNADOES
   MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
   LEXINGTON KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ATHENS OHIO. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Watch

Marc and I will be watch the situation closely this afternoon.  Get a full update today on WDRB News at 4.

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SPC Highlights Our Area for Severe Potential

The Storm Prediction Center is considering issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our Kentucky Counties.  Here is there discussion...

Mcd1228

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST
   VIRGINIA...KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291752Z - 292015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS HIGHLIGHT
   CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE
   AXIS RUNNING APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SW OF A SFC CYCLONE
   NEAR CINCINNATI. THE AIR MASS SE OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE OWING TO DIABATIC SFC HEATING AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MIDDLE 60S. THIS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
   SW AND CNTRL KENTUCKY NEWD TO A MULTI-WARM-FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
   ERN/NRN KY TO THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM-SECTOR
   CAPPING...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE TROUGH AND IN
   THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN KY. THE LOUISVILLE
   VWP SAMPLES AROUND 20-35 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-5-KM AGL LAYER...WHICH
   WILL LIKELY FOSTER EWD-SPREADING MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A
   FEW SUSTAINED DISCRETE CELLS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
   SVR RISK WOULD THEN SPREAD INTO AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS FARTHER
   E/N INTO ERN/NRN KY...SRN OH...AND WRN WV WITH TIME -- ESPECIALLY
   LATER IN THE AFTERNOON -- WHERE AIR-MASS RECOVERY IS ONGOING OR HAS
   YET TO BEGIN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP. AS THE
   MULTI-WARM-FRONTAL ZONE BRANCHING SE/E OF THE SFC CYCLONE ADVANCES
   NWD...AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD N OF THE OHIO
   RIVER...WHILE NEAR-SFC WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BACKED IN THE
   SHELTERED/DESTABILIZING PBL. THIS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SRH
   AND YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK/SHORT-DURATION TORNADO OR TWO --
   ESPECIALLY IN SRN OHIO...NERN KY...AND FAR WRN WV. THIS IS
   CONSISTENT WITH THE JACKSON KY VWP THAT PRESENTLY DEPICTS AROUND
   150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH.

   HOWEVER...REGION-WIDE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTABLY MORE POOR
   IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX -- PER 12Z ILN RAOB -- THAN THEY WERE IN
   PREVIOUS DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE
   VORT-MAX PRECEDING LOBE OF ASCENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING
   ENE/NE OF THE DESTABILIZING PBL. THESE FACTORS CAST CONSIDERABLE
   DOUBT ON OVERALL CONVECTIVE VIGOR AND THE NEED FOR A WW.
   REGARDLESS...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AMIDST AREAS
   OF DESTABILIZATION TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE
   THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2015

Marc and I will be watch the situation closely this afternoon.  Get a full update today on WDRB News at 4.

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06/28/2015

"Summer Clipper" to Bring Storms Late Tonight and Tomorrow

Following a much needed break in the active weather this weekend, the stormy pattern resumes promptly as we head into the workweek.  

Currently, we are tracking a fast moving "summer clipper" moving down through the Midwest.

Satrad

This system looks to move into our area over the next 24 hours and could bring storms by late tonight.  

Let's time it out with AdvanceTrak...

AT shows scattered showers developing late tonight with a few storms possible by 4 am for some of our western counties.

At1

AT brings a cluster of storms into the metro area between 5 and 6 am with small hail possible.

At2

This initial round of activity looks to quickly exit our eastern counties by around 8 or 9 am.

At3

It looks breezy and mainly dry during the mid to late morning hours.

At4

Scattered storms redevelop with heating for our eastern counties during the afternoon.

At5

Some of these storms could be strong.  

The Storm Prediction Center has much of our area in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Monday.

Spc

The primary threat will be damaging wind and hail.   

I think the highest chance of this occurring would be to the east of I-65. 

Jude will have a full update on what to expect first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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HD VIDEO: SpaceX's Falcon 9 Lift Off and Explosion

On June 28, 2015, a SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted the cargo-laden Dragon off the pad at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station to begin CRS-7. Falcon 9 rocket experienced a problem shortly before first stage shutdown. 

 

Lost in the explosion was approximately 4,000 lbs of supplies and new experiments destined for the International Space Station.

"This is a reminder that spaceflight is an incredible challenge, but we learn from each success and each setback," NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said in a statement. "Today's launch attempt will not deter us from our ambitious human spaceflight program."

SpaceX is currently leading an investigation to figure out why the rocket launch failed.  

The failure was the first by SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket after 18 successful launches.

NASA was hoping the SpaceX Falcon 9 will be able to transport astronauts to the International Space Station within the next two years.  

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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