From Temps Above 70 To Wind Chills Below Zero! Plus The Storm Prediction Center Has Severe Probabilities For Our Area...
To say the next 4 days will be a wild ride is truly an understatement. We will go above 70 on Tuesday, then a powerful front on Wednesday brings storms and drops temperatures near 40 degrees in a 24 hour period, then potential snow showers, then wind chill values could go below zero. This all occurs in about a 36 hour period! Much to talk about...
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk...
The Storm Prediction Center is basically covering themselves on Tuesday night and Wednesday in case a rogue severe storm occurs in our region. They are using the general t-storm header with a 5% chance of severe storms for you area. Here is their latest.
SPC Categorical Risk Of Severe Weather 7 AM Tuedsay - 7 AM Wednesday
Notice SPC has the general t-storm risk for our area on Tuesday night.
SPC Probabilistic Risk Of Severe Weather 7 AM Tuedsay - 7 AM Wednesday
Notice SPC does have a 5% chance of severe storms on Tuesday night west of I-65 for our western counties. This is the lowest severe risk they have.
My Thoughts On Severe Weather Potential Tuesday Night
The data suggests the severe weather risk on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning is very low. The instability and "bulk shear" are truly lower edge for severe weather and the low probability is likely all that is needed. Traditionally we need bulk shear to exceed 35 knots / 40 mph to support a severe risk and it barely tops at 40 knots.
Looking at AdvanceTrak, you can see it barely even looks like it will support thunder. This is clearly not a higher level risk at all. Notice the timestamp is on the top right part of each image.
This is a low, low level storm risk. I am not sure the 5% is even justified in this situation. While I cannot rule out a rogue severe storm, I just am not overly concerned about the storm risk.
Light Snow Chances?
This is the actual interesting part of the forecast. The temperature crash on Wednesday will be impressive. AdvanceTrak drops Louisville's temperature 17 degrees in an hour on Wednesday morning between 10 am and 11 am!!!
After that temperature crash occurs late morning, we will have enough cold air to support snow showers. Will there be any instability or moisture left for snow showers? Looking at the sounding for 11 am on Wednesday, we see the NAM shows the precipitation as snow and "instability" left over. This means convective snow showers or snow bursts are possible late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. These snow bursts can produce brief periods of moderate to heavy snow that last up to about 30 minutes and can coat the grass.
My Thoughts About Snow On Wednesday
The data is highly suggestive that convective snow bursts will follow this massive front. I would put our chance of see flakes above 50% on Wednesday. AdvanceTrak does hint at this late in the day.
The pavement will be quite warm from this stretch of warmth, so I am not concerned about real accumulations from this system. A quick covering is possible and any wet spots left Wednesday night could freeze up on Thursday morning.
How Cold Will It Get?
This is another interesting side of this storm. This storm absolutely expodes in intensity as it is moving past us meaning it will draw in lots of cold and produce lots of winds. I actually think a wind advisory may be needed for Wednesday. By Thursday morning the temperatures will be well into the teens for our area.
When you factor in the fact that the winds could still be gusting to 30 mph on Thursday morning, you quickly get the idea about how cold it will get.
AdvanceTrak has some pretty brutal wind chill values by Thursday morning. Notice the widespread readings below zero by Thursday morning!
You had hoped winter was over? Mother nature is saying not so fast...
We are approaching Spring storm season and if you want to be one of my storm spotters, you can join me on my facebook or twitter page. Just follow the link below and click "like" or "follow".
If you ever have any question, please remember I can be reached on facebook or twitter easily! Just follow the link below to my facebook or twitter page and click "LIKE/FOLLOW"!